Angers 0-4 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Angers face Toulouse.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Angers welcome Toulouse to Stade Raymond Kopa in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 2 March 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Angers have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Angers have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Toulouse — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Angers at 1.40 PPG versus Toulouse's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Angers have won 0, Toulouse 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended Angers 1–1 Toulouse — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Angers in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Toulouse in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 47% versus Toulouse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 40% | Toulouse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 0.98 xG and Toulouse 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.766 / defence 1.129 | Toulouse attack 1.057 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.373. Angers's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Angers's last 23 games and Toulouse's last 57.
Result probabilities: Angers 21% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 51%. Fair-value odds: Angers 4.77 | Draw 3.57 | Toulouse 1.96. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Angers's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Angers 60% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 21% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Angers 0.98 / Toulouse 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.766 / def 1.129 | Toulouse attack 1.057 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Toulouse xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Angers vs Toulouse kick off?
Angers vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Toulouse?
Angers 0 - 4 Toulouse.
Where is Angers vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Toulouse part of?
Angers vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 21% chance of winning, Toulouse a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Angers and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Angers vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 23 games and Toulouse's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
21%
4.77
28%
3.57
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Angers xG
Total xG
2.62
1.64
Toulouse xG
4.77
21%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
4%
24.58
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Angers and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Angers and 1.64 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Angers have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 26W 12D 19L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 19W 16D 22L from 57 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.58 PPG, Toulouse on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Angers have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 28 home games (16W 4D 8L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 12W 6D 10L from their last 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.21 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
Angers (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Angers vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 26W 12D 19L in their last 57 games (1.58 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 19W 16D 22L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Toulouse away?
Angers's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.86 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 8 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Angers have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Mar 2025, when Toulouse won Angers 0-4 Toulouse.
Angers's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Angers
1
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Toulouse?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 2, Toulouse have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Angers and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2026: Angers 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 46%, Toulouse 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Angers) and 54% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Toulouse in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Toulouse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Angers's recent matches and 46% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Angers and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Angers's recent games and 54% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Angers's recent matches and 68% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Angers 0-4 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 0.98 xG and Toulouse 1.64 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Angers fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Toulouse outscored their 1.64 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.77 / defence 1.13 against Toulouse attack 1.06 / defence 0.80, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 21% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 51%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 40%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.58 PPG, Toulouse 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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