Le Havre 1-4 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Le Havre welcome Toulouse to Stade Océane in Ligue 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 23 February 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Le Havre have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Le Havre at home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Toulouse stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Toulouse's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Le Havre's 30% BTTS rate and Toulouse's 30% (from Le Havre's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Le Havre, 2 for Toulouse and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended Le Havre 0–2 Toulouse — a Toulouse win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 46% versus Toulouse 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 52% | Toulouse 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Le Havre surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Toulouse have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.77 xG and Toulouse 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.608 / defence 1.354 | Toulouse attack 0.916 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.331. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.608 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Le Havre's defence rating of 1.354 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Toulouse's projected output up. Data: built from Le Havre's last 56 games and Toulouse's last 56.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 16% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 57%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 6.29 | Draw 3.72 | Toulouse 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (57%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Le Havre 30% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 16% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Le Havre 0.77 / Toulouse 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.608 / def 1.354 | Toulouse attack 0.916 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Toulouse xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Toulouse kick off?
Le Havre vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Le Havre 1 - 4 Toulouse.
Where is Le Havre vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Toulouse part of?
Le Havre vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 16% chance of winning, Toulouse a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Le Havre and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Le Havre vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.61) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 56 games and Toulouse's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
16%
6.29
27%
3.72
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.42
1.65
Toulouse xG
6.29
16%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
46%
2.15
Win to Nil
3%
32.81
27%
3.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.7 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.65 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Le Havre have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 12W 13D 31L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 18W 16D 22L from 56 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 0.88 PPG, Toulouse on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 0.96 PPG from their last 27 home games (8W 2D 17L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 11W 6D 10L from their last 27 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.16 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
Le Havre (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 12W 13D 31L in their last 56 games (0.88 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 18W 16D 22L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 0.96 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 2, Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Feb 2022, when Toulouse won Toulouse 4-0 Le Havre.
Le Havre's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Le Havre
2
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Toulouse?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 3, Toulouse have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 37%, Toulouse 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Le Havre) and 52% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 52% of games; Toulouse in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Toulouse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Le Havre's recent matches and 44% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Havre and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Le Havre's recent games and 52% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Le Havre's recent matches and 67% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Le Havre 1-4 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.77 xG and Toulouse 1.65 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 1.65 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.61 / defence 1.35 against Toulouse attack 0.92 / defence 0.80, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 16% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 57%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 52%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 0.88 PPG, Toulouse 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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