Angers 0-2 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Angers at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Angers host Nice at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Angers — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Angers have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Angers have won 2, Nice 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Angers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Angers in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Nice in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 36% versus Nice 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 29% | Nice 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.70 xG and Nice 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.912 / defence 1.027 | Nice attack 0.906 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.172. Nice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Angers games / 59 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 52% | Draw 24% | Nice 24%. Fair-value odds: Angers 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Nice 4.17. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Nice lead the H2H ledger, but Angers carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Angers 40% | Nice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 52% | Draw 24% | Nice 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Angers 1.70 / Nice 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.912 / def 1.027 | Nice attack 0.906 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Angers (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Nice xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Nice kick off?
Angers vs Nice kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Nice?
Angers 0 - 2 Nice.
Where is Angers vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Nice part of?
Angers vs Nice is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 52% chance of winning, Nice a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Angers and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Nice?
Record (7 meetings): Angers 2W | Draws 1 | Nice 4W.
What form are Angers and Nice in?
Angers (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Nice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Nice's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
52%
1.94
24%
4.16
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Angers xG
Total xG
2.79
1.09
Nice xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
4%
22.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Angers and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Angers and 1.09 for Nice, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Angers's recent record stands at 19W 11D 29L from 59 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 21L across 59 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.15 PPG, Nice on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Angers have managed 11W 4D 14L from 29 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 8W 6D 15L across 29 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.63 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Nice in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 19W 11D 29L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Nice have gone 23W 15D 21L in their last 59 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Nice away?
Angers's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.28 PPG; Nice away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when Nice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Nice specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Angers
1
Draws
5
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Nice?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 2, Nice have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Angers 0-2 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 41%, Nice 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Angers) and 66% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Angers have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Nice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Angers's games and 72% of Nice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Angers vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Angers's recent games and 66% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Nice tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Nice in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Angers 0-2 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.70 xG and Nice 1.09 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Angers fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Nice outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Nice attack 0.91 / defence 1.30, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 52% | Draw 24% | Nice 24%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Nice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 29%, Nice 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nice's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.15 PPG, Nice 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Nice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.