Angers 0-3 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Angers welcome Lyon to Stade Raymond Kopa. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Angers stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers at Stade Raymond Kopa this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lyon have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lyon have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Lyon's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Angers's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Angers register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Lyon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Angers, 3 for Lyon and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with Lyon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lyon trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 51% versus Lyon 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 43% | Lyon 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.26 xG and Lyon 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.981 / defence 1.555 | Lyon attack 1.067 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.306. Data: 13 Angers games / 47 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 21% | Draw 21% | Lyon 58%. Fair-value odds: Angers 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Lyon 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Angers 80% | Lyon 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 21% | Draw 21% | Lyon 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Angers 1.26 / Lyon 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.981 / def 1.555 | Lyon attack 1.067 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Lyon (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Angers xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Lyon xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Lyon kick off?
Angers vs Lyon kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Lyon?
Angers 0 - 3 Lyon.
Where is Angers vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Lyon part of?
Angers vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 21% chance of winning, Lyon a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Angers and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Lyon?
Record (4 meetings): Angers 1W | Draws 0 | Lyon 3W.
What form are Angers and Lyon in?
Angers (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Lyon (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Angers's attack at 0.98x the league average against Lyon's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
21%
4.73
21%
4.71
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Angers xG
Total xG
3.43
2.17
Lyon xG
4.73
21%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
11%
8.73
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
2%
41.33
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Angers and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Angers and 2.17 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Lyon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Angers have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 22W 10D 15L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon's form line: 22W 9D 16L from 47 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.62 PPG, Lyon on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Angers have posted 1.96 PPG from 23 outings (14W 3D 6L).
On the road, Lyon have gone 11W 4D 8L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.53 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Lyon in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 games (1.62 PPG), while Lyon have gone 22W 9D 16L in their last 47 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Lyon away?
Angers's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.96 PPG; Lyon away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Lyon won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Angers
1
Draws
6
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Lyon?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Lyon have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Angers 0-0 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 52%, Lyon 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Angers) and 56% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lyon in 30%; Lyon in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Angers's recent matches and 52% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Angers's recent games and 56% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Lyon tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Lyon in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lyon run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Angers 0-3 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.26 xG and Lyon 2.17 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Angers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lyon outscored their 2.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.98 / defence 1.55 against Lyon attack 1.07 / defence 0.84, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 21% | Draw 21% | Lyon 58%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 43%, Lyon 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lyon's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.62 PPG, Lyon 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.