SJK 4-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to OmaSp Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 June 2025 at 10:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at OmaSp Stadion, SJK have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for SJK against 1.00 for Mariehamn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SJK have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Mariehamn in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, SJK are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 0 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with SJK winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SJK and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
SJK — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 59% versus Mariehamn 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 61% | Mariehamn 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.90 xG and Mariehamn 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.175 / defence 0.963 | Mariehamn attack 0.814 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.468. Data: 35 SJK games / 34 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 55% | Draw 22% | Mariehamn 23%. Fair-value odds: SJK 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Mariehamn 4.35. The model has a clear lean to SJK (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SJK 70% | Mariehamn 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: OmaSp Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jun 2025, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 55% | Draw 22% | Mariehamn 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG SJK 1.90 / Mariehamn 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.175 / def 0.963 | Mariehamn attack 0.814 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: SJK (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Mariehamn xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Mariehamn kick off?
SJK vs Mariehamn kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 28 June 2025 at OmaSp Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
SJK 4 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is SJK vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at OmaSp Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Mariehamn part of?
SJK vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 55% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SJK and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
Record (7 meetings): SJK 5W | Draws 0 | Mariehamn 2W.
What form are SJK and Mariehamn in?
SJK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.18x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.81x) against SJK's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.48
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
SJK xG
Total xG
3.05
1.15
Mariehamn xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
3%
29.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are SJK and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for SJK and 1.15 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, SJK have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 23W 15D 18L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Mariehamn's form line: 13W 13D 30L from 56 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SJK are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (12W 6D 10L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 6W 5D 17L from 28 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SJK are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.04 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 23W 15D 18L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 13W 13D 30L in their last 56 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Mariehamn away?
SJK's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.50 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-4 on 21 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SJK
0
Draws
3
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 7, Mariehamn have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Mariehamn 2-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Mariehamn?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 68%, Mariehamn 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for SJK and 61% for Mariehamn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of SJK's games and 61% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of SJK's matches and 61% of Mariehamn's.
Do SJK and Mariehamn tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SJK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Mariehamn 4-1 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.90 xG and Mariehamn 1.15 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against Mariehamn attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 55% | Draw 22% | Mariehamn 23%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 61%, Mariehamn 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. SJK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. Mariehamn (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.