Mariehamn 3-2 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ilves (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mariehamn face Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mariehamn have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 3W 3D 4L at Wiklöf Holding Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ilves have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ilves are 1.50 PPG clear of Mariehamn in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (2.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Mariehamn, 3 for Ilves and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Ilves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 52% versus Ilves 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 57% | Ilves 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.00 xG and Ilves 2.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.805 / defence 1.142 | Ilves attack 1.331 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.611. Ilves have an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — the away xG of 2.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Mariehamn games / 25 Ilves games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 14% | Draw 17% | Ilves 69%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 7.14 | Draw 5.88 | Ilves 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 67% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mariehamn 40% | Ilves 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 14% | Draw 17% | Ilves 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 58% | xG Mariehamn 1.00 / Ilves 2.45 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.805 / def 1.142 | Ilves attack 1.331 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.611 • Poisson stance: Ilves (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
2.45
Ilves xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Ilves kick off?
Mariehamn vs Ilves kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Mariehamn 3 - 2 Ilves.
Where is Mariehamn vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Ilves part of?
Mariehamn vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 14% chance of winning, Ilves a 69% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mariehamn and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Ilves?
Record (6 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 2 | Ilves 3W.
What form are Mariehamn and Ilves in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Ilves (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.81x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (1.33x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 2.45.
The sample (26/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
14%
7.32
17%
5.79
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.45
2.45
Ilves xG
7.32
14%
Home win
5.79
17%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
9%
11.58
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
1%
84.75
25%
3.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Mariehamn and 2.45 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mariehamn come into this having played 54 games, going 13W 12D 29L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.61 PPG from 54 outings (24W 15D 15L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Mariehamn's home form reads 7W 7D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.48 points per game from 25 outings (10W 7D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mariehamn are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.69 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Ilves in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 13W 12D 29L in their last 54 games (0.94 PPG), while Ilves have gone 24W 15D 15L in their last 54 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Ilves away?
Ilves's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.12 PPG; Ilves away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Ilves in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
3
Draws
5
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 2, Ilves have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Ilves 2-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Ilves see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 40%, Ilves 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Mariehamn) and 32% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Ilves in 40%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 52% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 40% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Mariehamn's recent games and 32% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Ilves tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ilves in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat Ilves 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Ilves 3-2 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.00 xG and Ilves 2.45 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.81 / defence 1.14 against Ilves attack 1.33 / defence 0.83, drawn from 26/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 14% | Draw 17% | Ilves 69%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Mariehamn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 57%, Ilves 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Mariehamn winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.