KuPS 3-0 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours KuPS (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KuPS face Kooteepee.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KuPS host Kooteepee at Vare Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
KuPS — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, KuPS have posted 8W 0D 2L at Vare Areena — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vare Areena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kooteepee haven't played a Veikkausliiga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
KuPS carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of KuPS: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Kooteepee, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 2–0 with KuPS winning.
The historical record gives KuPS a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
KuPS in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 59% versus Kooteepee 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 56% | Kooteepee 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 2.01 xG and Kooteepee 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.095 / defence 0.624 | Kooteepee attack 1.019 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.509. Kooteepee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing KuPS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. KuPS's defence rating of 0.624 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 KuPS games / 5 Kooteepee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 62% | Draw 21% | Kooteepee 17%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Kooteepee 5.88. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: KuPS 40% | Kooteepee 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Vare Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 62% | Draw 21% | Kooteepee 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG KuPS 2.01 / Kooteepee 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.095 / def 0.624 | Kooteepee attack 1.019 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: KuPS (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Kooteepee xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Kooteepee kick off?
KuPS vs Kooteepee kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Vare Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Kooteepee?
KuPS 3 - 0 Kooteepee.
Where is KuPS vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Vare Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Kooteepee part of?
KuPS vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 62% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both KuPS and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Kooteepee?
Record (4 meetings): KuPS 3W | Draws 1 | Kooteepee 0W.
What form are KuPS and Kooteepee in?
KuPS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates KuPS's attack at 1.09x the league average against Kooteepee's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.77
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.97
0.96
Kooteepee xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
13%
7.47
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
2%
43.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are KuPS and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for KuPS and 0.96 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Kooteepee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
KuPS come into this having played 27 games, going 17W 5D 5L for 2.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kooteepee sit at 0.74 PPG from 27 outings (5W 5D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. Kooteepee haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
KuPS's home form reads 12W 0D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.07 PPG overall — KuPS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kooteepee have taken 0.57 points per game from 14 outings (2W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KuPS are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.78 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 17W 5D 5L in their last 27 games (2.07 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 5W 5D 17L in their last 27 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Kooteepee away?
KuPS's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.57 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when KuPS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KuPS's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
KuPS
1
Draws
0
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Kooteepee?
From 6 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Kooteepee have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Kooteepee 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Kooteepee?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 57%, Kooteepee 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (KuPS) and 43% (Kooteepee).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Kooteepee in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Kooteepee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of KuPS's recent matches and 43% of Kooteepee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of KuPS's recent games and 43% of Kooteepee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Kooteepee tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant KuPS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Kooteepee 3-0 at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 2.01 xG and Kooteepee 0.96 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kooteepee landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.09 / defence 0.62 against Kooteepee attack 1.02 / defence 1.21, drawn from 28/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 62% | Draw 21% | Kooteepee 17%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 56%, Kooteepee 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Kooteepee's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm. Kooteepee (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.