KuPS 1-0 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as KuPS face Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Väre Areena plays host to KuPS versus Ilves in Veikkausliiga (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
KuPS have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
KuPS's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — KuPS are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Ilves (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ilves away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for KuPS, 1.80 for Ilves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for KuPS, 0 for Ilves and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 31 May 2024, ended KuPS 2–1 Ilves — a KuPS win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 50% versus Ilves 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 48% | Ilves 50%). Note also that Ilves surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while KuPS recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.53 xG and Ilves 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.115 / defence 0.778 | Ilves attack 1.076 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.362. KuPS have a tight defence (rating 0.778), which is pulling Ilves's projected output down. Data: built from KuPS's last 41 games and Ilves's last 41.
Result probabilities: KuPS 46% | Draw 26% | Ilves 28%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.18 | Draw 3.80 | Ilves 3.60. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (KuPS's last 10 home games and Ilves's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KuPS 80% (last 10 home games) | Ilves 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 20 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 46% | Draw 26% | Ilves 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG KuPS 1.53 / Ilves 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.115 / def 0.778 | Ilves attack 1.076 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: KuPS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ilves xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KuPS vs Ilves FAQs
What time does KuPS vs Ilves kick off?
KuPS vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Ilves?
KuPS 1 - 0 Ilves.
Where is KuPS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Ilves part of?
KuPS vs Ilves is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 20) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 46% chance of winning, Ilves a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both KuPS and Ilves will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KuPS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
KuPS's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (1.08x) against KuPS's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from KuPS's last 41 games and Ilves's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.80
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.67
1.14
Ilves xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
6%
16.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KuPS vs Ilves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are KuPS and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for KuPS and 1.14 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KuPS come into this having played 46 games, going 27W 10D 9L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.48 PPG from 46 outings (18W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Ilves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
KuPS's home form reads 15W 1D 6L across their last 22 home games, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.36 points per game from their last 22 away games (8W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KuPS are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.61 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Ilves
Blended
KuPS (Home) vs Ilves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KuPS
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ KuPS vs Ilves Form FAQs
What form are KuPS and Ilves in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 27W 10D 9L in their last 46 games (1.98 PPG), while Ilves have gone 18W 14D 14L in their last 46 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Ilves away?
KuPS's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.09 PPG; Ilves away: 1.36 PPG.
Have KuPS or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ilves in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between KuPS and Ilves, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 23 June 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
KuPS have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won Ilves 0-3 KuPS on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
1
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ KuPS vs Ilves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Ilves?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, KuPS have won 5, Ilves have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did KuPS and Ilves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 June 2026: KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Ilves?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 46%, Ilves 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (KuPS) and 36% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ilves in 36%; Ilves in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KuPS vs Ilves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KuPS and Ilves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of KuPS's recent matches and 41% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KuPS and Ilves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of KuPS's recent games and 36% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Ilves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of KuPS's recent matches and 64% of Ilves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out Ilves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Ilves 1-0 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.53 xG and Ilves 1.14 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ilves landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.11 / defence 0.78 against Ilves attack 1.08 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 46% | Draw 26% | Ilves 28%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 48%, Ilves 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ilves's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.48. Form held, and they took the win. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.