Ilves 5-0 EIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ilves at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs EIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees EIF travel to Tammelan Stadion to take on Ilves. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ilves — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ilves have posted 6W 2D 2L at Tammelan Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tammelan Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, EIF stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for EIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, EIF have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Ilves have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ilves have won 1, EIF 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Ilves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ilves trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
EIF trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 45% versus EIF 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 50% | EIF 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 2.90 xG and EIF 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.299 / defence 0.959 | EIF attack 0.820 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.686 / away 1.316. Ilves carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 2.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. EIF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Ilves games / 20 EIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 75% | Draw 15% | EIF 10%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | EIF 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.90 / 1.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 50% | EIF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs EIF | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 75% | Draw 15% | EIF 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 61% | xG Ilves 2.90 / EIF 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.299 / def 0.959 | EIF attack 0.820 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.686 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Ilves (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.90
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.03
EIF xG
61%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs EIF kick off?
Ilves vs EIF kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs EIF?
Ilves 5 - 0 EIF.
Where is Ilves vs EIF being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs EIF part of?
Ilves vs EIF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs EIF?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 75% chance of winning, EIF a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs EIF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ilves and EIF will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs EIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and EIF?
Record (1 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 0 | EIF 0W.
What form are Ilves and EIF in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. EIF (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ilves's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against EIF's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.90. The same calculation in reverse, EIF's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.2%), 3-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.87
10%
9.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.90
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.93
1.03
EIF xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.87
15%
Draw
9.72
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
6%
18.08
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
1%
175.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs EIF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Ilves and EIF expected to score?
The model projects 2.90 expected goals for Ilves and 1.03 for EIF, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs EIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 10W 5D 5L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
EIF's form line: 3W 3D 14L from 20 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for EIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ilves are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against EIF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ilves have posted 2.00 PPG from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L).
On the road, EIF have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ilves are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; EIF are on 0.90 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: EIF in 65%.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
EIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and EIF in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 10W 5D 5L in their last 20 games (1.75 PPG), while EIF have gone 3W 3D 14L in their last 20 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or EIF away?
Ilves's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.00 PPG; EIF away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Ilves or EIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, EIF in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ilves
0
Draws
0
EIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and EIF?
From 2 meetings on record, Ilves have won 2, EIF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and EIF last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Ilves 5-0 EIF.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and EIF?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
EIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 50%, EIF 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Ilves and 80% for EIF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; EIF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / EIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play EIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ilves's games and 70% of EIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs EIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Ilves's matches and 80% of EIF's.
Do Ilves and EIF tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, EIF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ilves run riot with a 5-0 hammering of EIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat EIF 5-0 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.90 xG and EIF 1.03 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. EIF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.30 / defence 0.96 against EIF attack 0.82 / defence 1.32, drawn from 42/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 75% | Draw 15% | EIF 10%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 50%, EIF 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
EIF's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. EIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.