Ilves 0-0 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ilves (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ilves face AC Oulu.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and AC Oulu meet at Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ilves have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Tammelan Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tammelan Stadion.
AC Oulu (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Ilves's favour (2.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Ilves have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 6 meetings, with AC Oulu managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Ilves winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ilves and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 48% versus AC Oulu 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 48% | AC Oulu 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 2.99 xG and AC Oulu 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.488 / defence 0.926 | AC Oulu attack 1.044 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.476. Ilves carry an above-average attack strength of 1.488 — their λ of 2.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AC Oulu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Ilves games / 30 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 69% | Draw 15% | AC Oulu 16%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.45 | Draw 6.67 | AC Oulu 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (69%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.99 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.42 combined xG gives a 82% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 40% | AC Oulu 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 69% | Draw 15% | AC Oulu 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 72% | xG Ilves 2.99 / AC Oulu 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.488 / def 0.926 | AC Oulu attack 1.044 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Ilves (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.99
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.43
AC Oulu xG
72%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs AC Oulu kick off?
Ilves vs AC Oulu kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Ilves 0 - 0 AC Oulu.
Where is Ilves vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs AC Oulu part of?
Ilves vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 69% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 16% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Ilves and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and AC Oulu?
Record (6 meetings): Ilves 5W | Draws 0 | AC Oulu 1W.
What form are Ilves and AC Oulu in?
Ilves (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. AC Oulu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ilves's attack at 1.49x the league average against AC Oulu's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (1.04x) against Ilves's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (5.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
69%
1.45
15%
6.54
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
4 – 1
5.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.99
Ilves xG
Total xG
4.42
1.43
AC Oulu xG
1.45
69%
Home win
6.54
15%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.59
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
5%
19.91
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
1%
128.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Ilves and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 2.99 expected goals for Ilves and 1.43 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 4.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ilves's recent record stands at 24W 15D 15L from 54 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 25L across 54 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ilves by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AC Oulu heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 13W 7D 6L from 26 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Oulu's away record stands at 5W 6D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.31 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu in 65%.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 24W 15D 15L in their last 54 games (1.61 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 17W 12D 25L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or AC Oulu away?
Ilves's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.77 PPG; AC Oulu away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Ilves or AC Oulu been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, AC Oulu in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 0-4 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Ilves
1
Draws
2
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 7, AC Oulu have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when AC Oulu 1-0 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and AC Oulu?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 54% for Ilves, 77% for AC Oulu — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Ilves and 73% for AC Oulu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play AC Oulu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Ilves's games and 77% of AC Oulu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Ilves's matches and 73% of AC Oulu's.
Do Ilves and AC Oulu tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ilves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as Ilves and AC Oulu drew 0-0 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.99 xG and AC Oulu 1.43 xG, a combined 4.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ilves fell 3.0 short of their projected output. AC Oulu landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.49 / defence 0.93 against AC Oulu attack 1.04 / defence 1.26, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 69% | Draw 15% | AC Oulu 16%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 48%, AC Oulu 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
AC Oulu's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.