Gnistan 2-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gnistan at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gnistan vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Relegation Round - 1 as Gnistan welcome Mariehamn to Bolt Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gnistan — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gnistan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bolt Arena, Gnistan have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Gnistan have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Gnistan have won 1, Mariehamn 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Gnistan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gnistan in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gnistan 54% versus Mariehamn 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gnistan 58% | Mariehamn 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 1.53 xG and Mariehamn 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 0.836 / defence 1.030 | Mariehamn attack 0.710 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.248. Data: 22 Gnistan games / 44 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gnistan 51% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 22%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Mariehamn 4.55. Gnistan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gnistan are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gnistan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Gnistan 40% | Mariehamn 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Bolt Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 51% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Gnistan 1.53 / Mariehamn 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 0.836 / def 1.030 | Mariehamn attack 0.710 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Gnistan (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Mariehamn xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gnistan vs Mariehamn kick off?
Gnistan vs Mariehamn kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Bolt Arena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Gnistan 2 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is Gnistan vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Bolt Arena.
What competition is Gnistan vs Mariehamn part of?
Gnistan vs Mariehamn is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 51% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gnistan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gnistan and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Gnistan vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
Record (4 meetings): Gnistan 1W | Draws 2 | Mariehamn 1W.
What form are Gnistan and Mariehamn in?
Gnistan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Mariehamn (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gnistan's attack at 0.84x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Gnistan's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gnistan Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.69
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.45
0.91
Mariehamn xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
5%
21.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Gnistan and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Gnistan and 0.91 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gnistan's recent record stands at 8W 7D 9L from 24 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Gnistan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 12L across 24 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gnistan on 1.29 PPG, Mariehamn on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gnistan have managed 5W 3D 4L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 2W 2D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gnistan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gnistan are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.96 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gnistan and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 games (1.29 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 6W 6D 12L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gnistan at home or Mariehamn away?
Gnistan's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gnistan at home: 1.50 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gnistan and Mariehamn runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gnistan have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Mariehamn won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gnistan's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Gnistan
2
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
From 9 meetings on record, Gnistan have won 6, Mariehamn have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Gnistan 4-2 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
Gnistan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gnistan 42%, Mariehamn 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Gnistan) and 58% (Mariehamn). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 8% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gnistan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gnistan have failed to score in 42% of games; Mariehamn in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gnistan play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gnistan's recent matches and 42% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gnistan vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Gnistan's matches and 58% of Mariehamn's.
Do Gnistan and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Gnistan have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gnistan edge out Mariehamn 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan beat Mariehamn 2-1 at Bolt Arena, Relegation Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.53 xG and Mariehamn 0.91 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Mariehamn attack 0.71 / defence 1.14, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 51% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 22%, with Gnistan to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 58%, Mariehamn 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gnistan's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gnistan 1.29 PPG, Mariehamn 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gnistan win broke the near-deadlock. Gnistan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.