Gnistan 1-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gnistan vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gnistan host Ilves at Bolt Arena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gnistan stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gnistan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gnistan's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Bolt Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Ilves — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gnistan 1.70 PPG, Ilves 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gnistan, 0 for Ilves and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 10.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 6–4 with Gnistan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 10.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gnistan in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Ilves in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gnistan 52% versus Ilves 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gnistan 61% | Ilves 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 1.11 xG and Ilves 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 0.836 / defence 1.050 | Ilves attack 1.032 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.248. Data: 21 Gnistan games / 43 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gnistan 31% | Draw 27% | Ilves 42%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Ilves 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ilves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Gnistan 40% | Ilves 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Bolt Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 31% | Draw 27% | Ilves 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Gnistan 1.11 / Ilves 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 0.836 / def 1.050 | Ilves attack 1.032 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Ilves (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Ilves xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gnistan vs Ilves kick off?
Gnistan vs Ilves kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Bolt Arena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs Ilves?
Gnistan 1 - 1 Ilves.
Where is Gnistan vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Bolt Arena.
What competition is Gnistan vs Ilves part of?
Gnistan vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 31% chance of winning, Ilves a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gnistan and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Gnistan vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Ilves?
Record (1 meetings): Gnistan 1W | Draws 0 | Ilves 0W.
What form are Gnistan and Ilves in?
Gnistan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Ilves (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gnistan's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Gnistan's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
31%
3.26
27%
3.70
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.46
1.35
Ilves xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.61
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gnistan and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Gnistan and 1.35 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gnistan's recent record stands at 8W 6D 9L from 23 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Gnistan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 5L across 23 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ilves by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gnistan heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gnistan have managed 5W 2D 4L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 5W 3D 3L across 11 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Gnistan are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 2.26 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gnistan and Ilves in coming into this match?
Gnistan have gone 8W 6D 9L in their last 23 games (1.30 PPG), while Ilves have gone 13W 5D 5L in their last 23 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gnistan at home or Ilves away?
Ilves's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gnistan at home: 1.55 PPG; Ilves away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Gnistan or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gnistan have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ilves in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gnistan and Ilves runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ilves go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Gnistan's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Gnistan
2
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Ilves?
From 7 meetings on record, Gnistan have won 1, Ilves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Ilves 2-0 Gnistan.
Who has won more matches between Gnistan and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gnistan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gnistan 36%, Ilves 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Gnistan) and 27% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Gnistan keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ilves in 36%; Gnistan have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gnistan play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Gnistan's recent matches and 46% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gnistan vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Gnistan's recent games and 27% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gnistan and Ilves tend to score early?
Gnistan have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ilves in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gnistan and Ilves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan and Ilves finished level at 1-1 at Bolt Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.11 xG and Ilves 1.35 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Ilves attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 21/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 31% | Draw 27% | Ilves 42%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gnistan 61%, Ilves 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gnistan's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Ilves's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.