FF Jaro 1-2 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FF Jaro vs AC Oulu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Project Liv Arena plays host to FF Jaro versus AC Oulu in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 14 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FF Jaro have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FF Jaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Project Liv Arena, FF Jaro have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AC Oulu (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for FF Jaro, 1.30 for AC Oulu — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FF Jaro have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AC Oulu in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FF Jaro 2W, AC Oulu 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with FF Jaro winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FF Jaro half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
AC Oulu half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FF Jaro 54% and AC Oulu 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FF Jaro 54% | AC Oulu 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FF Jaro 1.27 xG and AC Oulu 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FF Jaro attack 0.678 / defence 1.199 | AC Oulu attack 0.909 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.652. FF Jaro's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 FF Jaro games / 44 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FF Jaro 26% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 49%. Fair-value odds: FF Jaro 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | AC Oulu 2.04. AC Oulu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Oulu at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FF Jaro 60% | AC Oulu 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FF Jaro vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Project Liv Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FF Jaro 26% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG FF Jaro 1.27 / AC Oulu 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: FF Jaro attack 0.678 / def 1.199 | AC Oulu attack 0.909 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.652 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
FF Jaro xG
Expected Goals
1.80
AC Oulu xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FF Jaro vs AC Oulu kick off?
FF Jaro vs AC Oulu kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Project Liv Arena.
What was the final score in FF Jaro vs AC Oulu?
FF Jaro 1 - 2 AC Oulu.
Where is FF Jaro vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Project Liv Arena.
What competition is FF Jaro vs AC Oulu part of?
FF Jaro vs AC Oulu is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win FF Jaro vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives FF Jaro a 26% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in FF Jaro vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FF Jaro and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will FF Jaro vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and AC Oulu?
Record (2 meetings): FF Jaro 2W | Draws 0 | AC Oulu 0W.
What form are FF Jaro and AC Oulu in?
FF Jaro (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. AC Oulu (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FF Jaro's attack at 0.68x the league average against AC Oulu's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (0.91x) against FF Jaro's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
26%
3.84
25%
4.00
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
FF Jaro xG
Total xG
3.07
1.80
AC Oulu xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
17%
6.06
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
4%
23.25
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FF Jaro vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are FF Jaro and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for FF Jaro and 1.80 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for FF Jaro vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FF Jaro's recent record stands at 8W 4D 12L from 24 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for FF Jaro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 15L across 24 games — 0.79 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for FF Jaro against 0.79 for AC Oulu. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FF Jaro have managed 3W 3D 6L from 12 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Oulu's away record stands at 2W 2D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FF Jaro are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.33 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu in 71%.
Last 24 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FF Jaro
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FF Jaro and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
FF Jaro have gone 8W 4D 12L in their last 24 games (1.17 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 5W 4D 15L in their last 24 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FF Jaro at home or AC Oulu away?
FF Jaro's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FF Jaro at home: 1.00 PPG; AC Oulu away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
AC Oulu go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FF Jaro have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FF Jaro
0
Draws
3
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and AC Oulu?
From 5 meetings on record, FF Jaro have won 2, AC Oulu have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FF Jaro and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when FF Jaro 0-1 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between FF Jaro and AC Oulu?
AC Oulu have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FF Jaro see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for FF Jaro, 75% for AC Oulu — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for FF Jaro and 67% for AC Oulu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FF Jaro have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FF Jaro home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FF Jaro play AC Oulu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FF Jaro's games and 75% of AC Oulu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FF Jaro vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of FF Jaro's matches and 67% of AC Oulu's.
Do FF Jaro and AC Oulu tend to score early?
FF Jaro have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AC Oulu edge out FF Jaro 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat FF Jaro 1-2 at Project Liv Arena, Relegation Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.27 xG and AC Oulu 1.80 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.68 / defence 1.20 against AC Oulu attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 26% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 49%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 54%, AC Oulu 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FF Jaro's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
AC Oulu's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FF Jaro 1.17 PPG, AC Oulu 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.