AC Oulu 1-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AC Oulu face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and Mariehamn meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AC Oulu have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, AC Oulu have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — AC Oulu are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mariehamn (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mariehamn's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for AC Oulu, 1.10 for Mariehamn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for AC Oulu, 0 for Mariehamn and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended AC Oulu 3–2 Mariehamn — a AC Oulu win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AC Oulu 62% and Mariehamn 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 66% | Mariehamn 50%). Note also that Mariehamn surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while AC Oulu recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.56 xG and Mariehamn 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.848 / defence 1.000 | Mariehamn attack 0.864 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.269. Mariehamn's defence rating of 1.224 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AC Oulu's projected output up. Data: built from AC Oulu's last 28 games and Mariehamn's last 28.
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 46% | Draw 30% | Mariehamn 24%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.18 | Draw 3.34 | Mariehamn 4.11. AC Oulu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Oulu are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (AC Oulu's last 10 home games and Mariehamn's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AC Oulu 70% (last 10 home games) | Mariehamn 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 7 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 46% | Draw 30% | Mariehamn 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG AC Oulu 1.56 / Mariehamn 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.848 / def 1.000 | Mariehamn attack 0.864 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Mariehamn xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AC Oulu vs Mariehamn FAQs
What time does AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kick off?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 17 May 2024 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
AC Oulu 1 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn part of?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 7) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 46% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both AC Oulu and Mariehamn will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AC Oulu vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.85x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.86x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from AC Oulu's last 28 games and Mariehamn's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
46%
2.18
30%
3.34
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.66
1.10
Mariehamn xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
5%
19.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AC Oulu vs Mariehamn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.10 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 24W 11D 21L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Mariehamn's form line: 15W 15D 26L from 56 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, AC Oulu are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 28 home games (13W 6D 9L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 7W 6D 15L from their last 28 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AC Oulu are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.29 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Current Season
Mariehamn
Current Season
AC Oulu (Home) vs Mariehamn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AC Oulu
Current Season
Mariehamn
Current Season
❓ AC Oulu vs Mariehamn Form FAQs
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 24W 11D 21L in their last 56 games (1.48 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 15W 15D 26L in their last 56 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Mariehamn away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.61 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between AC Oulu and Mariehamn, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
2
Draws
4
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ AC Oulu vs Mariehamn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AC Oulu have won 4, Mariehamn have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Mariehamn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 54%, Mariehamn 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (AC Oulu) and 50% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AC Oulu vs Mariehamn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AC Oulu and Mariehamn matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of AC Oulu's games and 61% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AC Oulu and Mariehamn matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of AC Oulu's recent games and 50% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Mariehamn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 75% of Mariehamn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Oulu and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu and Mariehamn finished level at 1-1 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.56 xG and Mariehamn 1.10 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against Mariehamn attack 0.86 / defence 1.22, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 46% | Draw 30% | Mariehamn 24%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 66%, Mariehamn 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Oulu arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.