Lahti 3-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lahti at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lahti vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Lahti welcome Mariehamn to Lahden Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Lahti have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lahti, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lahti's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Lahden Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mariehamn stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mariehamn away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Lahti) versus 1.10 (Mariehamn). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lahti, 3 for Mariehamn and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lahti trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Mariehamn trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lahti 48% versus Mariehamn 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lahti 48% | Mariehamn 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lahti 1.29 xG and Mariehamn 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lahti attack 0.827 / defence 0.938 | Mariehamn attack 1.007 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.278. Data: 27 Lahti games / 27 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lahti 36% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 32%. Fair-value odds: Lahti 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Mariehamn 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lahti at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lahti offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lahti 70% | Mariehamn 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lahti vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Lahden Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lahti 36% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Lahti 1.29 / Mariehamn 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lahti attack 0.827 / def 0.938 | Mariehamn attack 1.007 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Lahti (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Lahti xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Mariehamn xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lahti vs Mariehamn kick off?
Lahti vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Lahden Stadion.
What was the final score in Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Lahti 3 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is Lahti vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Lahden Stadion.
What competition is Lahti vs Mariehamn part of?
Lahti vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Lahti a 36% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lahti the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lahti and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Lahti vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lahti and Mariehamn?
Record (5 meetings): Lahti 1W | Draws 1 | Mariehamn 3W.
What form are Lahti and Mariehamn in?
Lahti (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lahti's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Lahti's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lahti Win
36%
2.78
32%
3.10
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Lahti xG
Total xG
2.50
1.21
Mariehamn xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lahti and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Lahti and 1.21 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Lahti vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lahti's recent record stands at 12W 14D 28L from 54 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lahti is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 26L across 54 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lahti on 0.93 PPG, Mariehamn on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lahti have managed 7W 5D 15L from 27 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lahti are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.31 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lahti
Blended
Mariehamn
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lahti and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Lahti have gone 12W 14D 28L in their last 54 games (0.93 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lahti at home or Mariehamn away?
Lahti's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lahti at home: 0.96 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lahti and Mariehamn runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Mariehamn won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lahti's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lahti
3
Draws
3
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lahti and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Lahti have won 4, Mariehamn have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lahti and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Mariehamn 0-2 Lahti.
Who has won more matches between Lahti and Mariehamn?
Lahti have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lahti 52%, Mariehamn 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lahti) and 52% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Lahti have failed to score in 41% of games; Mariehamn in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lahti home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lahti play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Lahti's games and 59% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lahti vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lahti's recent games and 52% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lahti and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Lahti have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lahti run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lahti beat Mariehamn 3-0 at Lahden Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lahti 1.29 xG and Mariehamn 1.21 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lahti beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mariehamn landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lahti attack 0.83 / defence 0.94 against Mariehamn attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lahti 36% | Draw 32% | Mariehamn 32%, with Lahti to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lahti 48%, Mariehamn 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lahti's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lahti 0.93 PPG, Mariehamn 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lahti win broke the near-deadlock. Lahti (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.