AC Oulu 2-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours KuPS (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AC Oulu face KuPS.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and KuPS meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
AC Oulu's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Raatin stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
KuPS (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, KuPS are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
KuPS hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with KuPS winning.
It is worth noting that KuPS have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (40 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
KuPS — key trading statistics (40 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 62% versus KuPS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 58% | KuPS 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.13 xG and KuPS 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.865 / defence 1.265 | KuPS attack 0.752 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.538. Data: 35 AC Oulu games / 37 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 29% | Draw 26% | KuPS 45%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | KuPS 2.22. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AC Oulu 50% | KuPS 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 29% | Draw 26% | KuPS 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG AC Oulu 1.13 / KuPS 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.865 / def 1.265 | KuPS attack 0.752 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.538 • Poisson stance: KuPS (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.46
KuPS xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs KuPS kick off?
AC Oulu vs KuPS kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 4 July 2025 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs KuPS?
AC Oulu 2 - 2 KuPS.
Where is AC Oulu vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs KuPS part of?
AC Oulu vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 29% chance of winning, KuPS a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AC Oulu and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and KuPS?
Record (7 meetings): AC Oulu 1W | Draws 0 | KuPS 6W.
What form are AC Oulu and KuPS in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. KuPS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.86x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (0.75x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 35/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
29%
3.42
26%
3.81
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.60
1.46
KuPS xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
7%
14.79
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.46 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 9W 9D 22L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS's form line: 25W 6D 9L from 40 games, 2.02 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AC Oulu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (7W 3D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — AC Oulu are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, KuPS have gone 7W 6D 5L from 18 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of KuPS's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AC Oulu are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.65 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and KuPS in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 9W 9D 22L in their last 40 games (0.90 PPG), while KuPS have gone 25W 6D 9L in their last 40 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.33 PPG; KuPS away: 1.50 PPG.
Have AC Oulu or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, KuPS in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 17 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AC Oulu
1
Draws
7
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 2, KuPS have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when AC Oulu 2-0 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 44%, KuPS 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AC Oulu) and 44% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: AC Oulu keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; KuPS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 56% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AC Oulu's recent games and 44% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and KuPS tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, KuPS in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Oulu and KuPS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 14, as AC Oulu and KuPS drew 2-2 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.13 xG and KuPS 1.46 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AC Oulu beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.86 / defence 1.26 against KuPS attack 0.75 / defence 0.85, drawn from 35/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 29% | Draw 26% | KuPS 45%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 58%, KuPS 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (40 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (40 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.