Newcastle vs Sunderland – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newcastle at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. James' Park plays host to Newcastle versus Sunderland in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 5 December 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Newcastle's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Newcastle have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Newcastle's home record at St. James' Park: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sunderland have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sunderland have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sunderland arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Newcastle register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Sunderland in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Newcastle, 2 for Sunderland and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Sunderland winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 65% versus Sunderland 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 62% | Sunderland 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.83 xG and Sunderland 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.097 / defence 1.139 | Sunderland attack 0.995 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.210. Data: 40 Newcastle games / 40 Sunderland games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Newcastle 48% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 29%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Sunderland 3.45. Newcastle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Newcastle are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sunderland (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newcastle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 90% | Sunderland 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 48% | Draw 23% | Sunderland 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Newcastle 1.83 / Sunderland 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.097 / def 1.139 | Sunderland attack 0.995 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Sunderland xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Sunderland kick off?
Newcastle vs Sunderland is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at St. James' Park.
Where is Newcastle vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Sunderland part of?
Newcastle vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 48% chance of winning, Sunderland a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Newcastle and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Sunderland?
Record (2 meetings): Newcastle 0W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 2W.
What form are Newcastle and Sunderland in?
Newcastle (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (1.10) and Sunderland's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.99x) against Newcastle's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
48%
2.07
23%
4.39
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Newcastle xG
Total xG
3.21
1.37
Sunderland xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
5%
21.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.37 for Sunderland, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Newcastle's recent record stands at 15W 8D 17L from 40 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Newcastle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 13L across 40 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Newcastle against 1.42 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Newcastle have managed 10W 3D 7L from 20 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 5W 6D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Newcastle are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.10 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 15W 8D 17L in their last 40 games (1.32 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 15W 12D 13L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Sunderland away?
Newcastle's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.65 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sunderland in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Newcastle
0
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 0, Sunderland have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Newcastle 1-2 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Newcastle, 50% for Sunderland — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Newcastle and 45% for Sunderland. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Newcastle's games and 50% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newcastle vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Newcastle's matches and 45% of Sunderland's.
Do Newcastle and Sunderland tend to score early?
Newcastle have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.