Liverpool 2-2 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Liverpool (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Liverpool face Fulham.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anfield plays host to Liverpool versus Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Liverpool's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Liverpool have posted 8W 0D 2L at Anfield — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Anfield. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fulham have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Liverpool's favour (2.60 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 4 previous meetings, Liverpool are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Liverpool winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Liverpool and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Liverpool half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 62% versus Fulham 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 64% | Fulham 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.43 xG and Fulham 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.097 / defence 0.600 | Fulham attack 0.967 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.401. Fulham's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Liverpool's defence rating of 0.600 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Liverpool games / 53 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 50% | Draw 30% | Fulham 20%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Fulham 5.00. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Liverpool 30% | Fulham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 50% | Draw 30% | Fulham 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Liverpool 1.43 / Fulham 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.097 / def 0.600 | Fulham attack 0.967 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Fulham xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs Fulham kick off?
Liverpool vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
Liverpool 2 - 2 Fulham.
Where is Liverpool vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Fulham part of?
Liverpool vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 50% chance of winning, Fulham a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Liverpool and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Fulham?
Record (4 meetings): Liverpool 3W | Draws 1 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Liverpool and Fulham in?
Liverpool (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Fulham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Liverpool's attack at 1.10x the league average against Fulham's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.97x) against Liverpool's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.31
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.24
0.81
Fulham xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
5%
20.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.81 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Liverpool have picked up 2.25 PPG on a 35W 12D 5L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham's form line: 18W 13D 21L from 52 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Liverpool have posted 2.52 PPG from 25 outings (20W 3D 2L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 5W 9D 11L from 25 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Liverpool are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.46 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and Fulham in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 35W 12D 5L in their last 52 games (2.25 PPG), while Fulham have gone 18W 13D 21L in their last 52 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Fulham away?
Liverpool's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.52 PPG; Fulham away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fulham in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Liverpool
4
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Fulham?
From 9 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 4, Fulham have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Liverpool 0-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Fulham?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 52%, Fulham 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Liverpool) and 52% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fulham in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Liverpool's games and 60% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Liverpool vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Liverpool's matches and 52% of Fulham's.
Liverpool and Fulham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool and Fulham finished level at 2-2 at Anfield, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.43 xG and Fulham 0.81 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fulham outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.10 / defence 0.60 against Fulham attack 0.97 / defence 0.79, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 50% | Draw 30% | Fulham 20%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 64%, Fulham 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Liverpool (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.