Liverpool 3-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Liverpool (70%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Liverpool face Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Liverpool and Burnley meet at Anfield in Premier League (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Liverpool (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Liverpool at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Burnley's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Burnley away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Liverpool. A 1.40 PPG lead over Burnley (2.30 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Liverpool have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Burnley managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Dec 2023, ended Liverpool 2–0 Burnley — a Liverpool win.
The head-to-head data gives Liverpool an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Liverpool — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Burnley — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 57% versus Burnley 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 62% | Burnley 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 2.48 xG and Burnley 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.349 / defence 0.813 | Burnley attack 0.819 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.445. Liverpool carry an above-average attack rating of 1.349 — their 2.48 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Liverpool's last 61 games and Burnley's last 23.
Result probabilities: Liverpool 70% | Draw 18% | Burnley 12%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.43 | Draw 5.60 | Burnley 8.24. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (70%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Liverpool's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Liverpool 50% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 70% | Draw 18% | Burnley 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Liverpool 2.48 / Burnley 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.349 / def 0.813 | Burnley attack 0.819 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Burnley xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Liverpool vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Liverpool vs Burnley kick off?
Liverpool vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Burnley?
Liverpool 3 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Liverpool vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Burnley part of?
Liverpool vs Burnley is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 70% chance of winning, Burnley a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Liverpool and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Liverpool vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Liverpool's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.48. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.82x) against Liverpool's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Liverpool's last 61 games and Burnley's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.60
12%
8.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
3 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Liverpool xG
Total xG
3.44
0.96
Burnley xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.60
18%
Draw
8.24
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
8%
11.93
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
1%
98.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Liverpool vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.96 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Liverpool come into this having played 61 games, going 34W 16D 11L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 1.66 PPG from 61 outings (29W 14D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Liverpool against 1.66 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Liverpool's home form reads 22W 7D 1L across their last 30 home games, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.93 PPG overall — Liverpool are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 1.60 points per game from their last 30 away games (13W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Liverpool are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.59 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Blended
Burnley
Blended
Liverpool (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Liverpool
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Liverpool vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Liverpool and Burnley in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 34W 16D 11L in their last 61 games (1.93 PPG), while Burnley have gone 29W 14D 18L in their last 61 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Burnley away?
Liverpool's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.43 PPG; Burnley away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Burnley in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Liverpool and Burnley, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Liverpool have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Liverpool
1
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Liverpool vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Burnley?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Liverpool have won 5, Burnley have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Liverpool 1-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Burnley?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Liverpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 53%, Burnley 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Liverpool) and 50% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Liverpool vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Liverpool and Burnley matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Liverpool's games and 60% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Liverpool and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Liverpool's matches and 50% of Burnley's.
Do Liverpool and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Liverpool's recent matches and 70% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Burnley 3-1 at Anfield, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 2.48 xG and Burnley 0.96 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.35 / defence 0.81 against Burnley attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 70% | Draw 18% | Burnley 12%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 62%, Burnley 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Liverpool 1.93 PPG, Burnley 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Liverpool win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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