Brentford 1-4 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Liverpool (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brentford face Liverpool.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Brentford welcome Liverpool to Gtech Community Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brentford stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brentford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brentford's home record at Gtech Community Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Liverpool — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Liverpool's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Brentford's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Brentford have won 1, Liverpool 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 0–3 with Liverpool winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Brentford trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Liverpool trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brentford 57% versus Liverpool 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brentford 54% | Liverpool 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brentford 1.34 xG and Liverpool 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brentford attack 0.998 / defence 1.187 | Liverpool attack 1.135 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.526. Liverpool's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Brentford games / 62 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brentford 24% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 53%. Fair-value odds: Brentford 4.17 | Draw 4.55 | Liverpool 1.89. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brentford 80% | Liverpool 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brentford vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gtech Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brentford 24% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Brentford 1.34 / Liverpool 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Brentford attack 0.998 / def 1.187 | Liverpool attack 1.135 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Brentford xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Liverpool xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brentford vs Liverpool kick off?
Brentford vs Liverpool kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Gtech Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Brentford vs Liverpool?
Brentford 1 - 4 Liverpool.
Where is Brentford vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Gtech Community Stadium.
What competition is Brentford vs Liverpool part of?
Brentford vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Brentford vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Brentford a 24% chance of winning, Liverpool a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Brentford and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Brentford vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Liverpool?
Record (5 meetings): Brentford 1W | Draws 1 | Liverpool 3W.
What form are Brentford and Liverpool in?
Brentford (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Liverpool (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Brentford's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Liverpool's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Liverpool's attack versus Brentford's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
24%
4.14
22%
4.47
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Brentford xG
Total xG
3.39
2.06
Liverpool xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
13%
7.81
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
3%
32.29
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brentford vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Brentford and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Brentford and 2.06 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Brentford vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Brentford have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 22W 18D 21L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Brentford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Liverpool's form line: 35W 15D 11L from 61 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brentford.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Brentford have posted 1.63 PPG from 30 outings (13W 10D 7L).
On the road, Liverpool have gone 12W 8D 10L from 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Liverpool's season.
The Goals Picture
Brentford are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.10 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brentford
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brentford and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Brentford have gone 22W 18D 21L in their last 61 games (1.38 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 35W 15D 11L in their last 61 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brentford at home or Liverpool away?
Brentford's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brentford at home: 1.63 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Brentford or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brentford have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Liverpool in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brentford and Liverpool runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2022, when Liverpool won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brentford's record when hosting Liverpool specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Brentford
2
Draws
6
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brentford and Liverpool?
From 10 meetings on record, Brentford have won 2, Liverpool have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brentford and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Liverpool 1-1 Brentford.
Who has won more matches between Brentford and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brentford at 70%, Liverpool at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Brentford and 63% for Liverpool. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brentford home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brentford play Liverpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Brentford's games and 60% of Liverpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brentford vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Brentford's matches and 63% of Liverpool's.
Dominant Liverpool run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Brentford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Brentford 1-4 at Gtech Community Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brentford 1.34 xG and Liverpool 2.06 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Liverpool outscored their 2.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brentford attack 1.00 / defence 1.19 against Liverpool attack 1.14 / defence 0.78, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brentford 24% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 53%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brentford 54%, Liverpool 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brentford's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Liverpool's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Brentford (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.