Leicester 1-3 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Nottingham Forest fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Leicester welcome Nottingham Forest to King Power Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 October 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Leicester have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leicester's home record at King Power Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Leicester are significantly better at King Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nottingham Forest — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Nottingham Forest have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Leicester at 1.20 PPG versus Nottingham Forest's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Leicester register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Nottingham Forest in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Leicester, 1 for Nottingham Forest and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with Nottingham Forest winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Leicester in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leicester 59% and Nottingham Forest 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 61% | Nottingham Forest 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 0.92 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.736 / defence 0.924 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.944 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.429. Leicester's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Leicester games / 46 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 26% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 42%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Nottingham Forest 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nottingham Forest as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Leicester 70% | Nottingham Forest 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 26% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Leicester 0.92 / Nottingham Forest 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.736 / def 0.924 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.944 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Nottingham Forest xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Leicester vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Nottingham Forest?
Leicester 1 - 3 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Leicester vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Leicester vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 26% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Leicester and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Nottingham Forest?
Record (2 meetings): Leicester 1W | Draws 0 | Nottingham Forest 1W.
What form are Leicester and Nottingham Forest in?
Leicester (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Leicester vs Nottingham Forest?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Leicester's attack at 0.74x the league average against Nottingham Forest's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
26%
3.89
32%
3.11
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.17
1.25
Nottingham Forest xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
7%
13.50
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.3 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Leicester and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Leicester and 1.25 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Leicester have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 26W 7D 13L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest's form line: 12W 13D 21L from 46 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Leicester are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nottingham Forest.
Venue Form
On home soil, Leicester have posted 2.09 PPG from 23 outings (15W 3D 5L).
On the road, Nottingham Forest have gone 6W 6D 11L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Leicester are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.24 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nottingham Forest in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Nottingham Forest
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 26W 7D 13L in their last 46 games (1.85 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 12W 13D 21L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Leicester's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 2.09 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2022, when Leicester won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leicester's record when hosting Nottingham Forest specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Leicester
1
Draws
2
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Nottingham Forest?
From 4 meetings on record, Leicester have won 1, Nottingham Forest have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Nottingham Forest 2-2 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 52%, Nottingham Forest 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Leicester) and 52% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Leicester keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Nottingham Forest in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Nottingham Forest?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Leicester's games and 61% of Nottingham Forest's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leicester vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Leicester's recent games and 52% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Nottingham Forest cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Leicester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Leicester 1-3 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 0.92 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.25 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nottingham Forest outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.74 / defence 0.92 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.94 / defence 0.81, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 26% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 42%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 61%, Nottingham Forest 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Leicester arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Nottingham Forest winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.