Everton vs Newcastle – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Newcastle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Newcastle travel to Hill Dickinson Stadium to take on Everton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Everton have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Newcastle — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Newcastle have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Everton carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Everton, 3 for Newcastle and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2026, ended 1–0 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Newcastle trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 49% versus Newcastle 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 43% | Newcastle 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.44 xG and Newcastle 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.860 / defence 1.025 | Newcastle attack 1.009 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.170. Data: 47 Everton games / 47 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 42% | Draw 26% | Newcastle 32%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Newcastle 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Everton 50% | Newcastle 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 42% | Draw 26% | Newcastle 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Everton 1.44 / Newcastle 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.860 / def 1.025 | Newcastle attack 1.009 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Everton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Newcastle xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Newcastle kick off?
Everton vs Newcastle is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Where is Everton vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Newcastle part of?
Everton vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 42% chance of winning, Newcastle a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Everton and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
Record (10 meetings): Everton 5W | Draws 2 | Newcastle 3W.
What form are Everton and Newcastle in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Newcastle (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.86) and Newcastle's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.86
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Everton xG
Total xG
2.65
1.21
Newcastle xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Everton and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Everton and 1.21 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Everton have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 17W 14D 16L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Newcastle's form line: 17W 9D 21L from 47 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.38 PPG, Newcastle on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, Newcastle have gone 6W 5D 12L from 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.38 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Newcastle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 games (1.38 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 17W 9D 21L in their last 47 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Newcastle away?
Everton's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.30 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Everton or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Newcastle in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton and Newcastle runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Everton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Everton
2
Draws
3
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Newcastle?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 5, Newcastle have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2026, when Newcastle 0-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Newcastle?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 52%, Newcastle 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Everton) and 48% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Newcastle in 30%; Newcastle in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Everton's recent matches and 52% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Everton's recent games and 48% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton and Newcastle tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Newcastle in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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