Burnley 1-4 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Newcastle (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Burnley face Newcastle.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Newcastle make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Premier League (matchday 36). The match kicks off on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Burnley have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Newcastle's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Newcastle away from home: 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Newcastle are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Newcastle have the stronger record — 3 wins to Burnley's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Burnley 0–2 Newcastle — a Newcastle win.
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Newcastle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 54% versus Newcastle 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 58% | Newcastle 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.25 xG and Newcastle 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.661 / defence 1.228 | Newcastle attack 0.967 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.763 / away 1.487. Burnley's attack rating of 0.661 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Burnley's defence rating of 1.228 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Newcastle's projected output up. Data: built from Burnley's last 35 games and Newcastle's last 72.
Result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 49%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.82 | Draw 3.97 | Newcastle 2.06. Newcastle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.25 / 1.77) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newcastle if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Newcastle's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 50% (last 10 home games) | Newcastle 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, matchday 36 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 26% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Burnley 1.25 / Newcastle 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.661 / def 1.228 | Newcastle attack 0.967 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.763 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Newcastle xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Newcastle FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Newcastle kick off?
Burnley vs Newcastle kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Newcastle?
Burnley 1 - 4 Newcastle.
Where is Burnley vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Newcastle part of?
Burnley vs Newcastle is a Premier League fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 26% chance of winning, Newcastle a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Burnley and Newcastle will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burnley vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.66) and Newcastle's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Newcastle's attack (0.97x) against Burnley's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 35 games and Newcastle's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
26%
3.82
25%
3.97
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Burnley xG
Total xG
3.02
1.77
Newcastle xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
4%
22.31
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Newcastle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Burnley and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Burnley and 1.77 for Newcastle, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burnley come into this having played 72 games, going 31W 18D 23L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Newcastle sit at 1.72 PPG from 72 outings (35W 19D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Burnley against 1.72 for Newcastle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Burnley's home form reads 16W 7D 12L across their last 35 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Newcastle have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 35 away games (12W 10D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Newcastle's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.97 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Newcastle
Current Season
Burnley (Home) vs Newcastle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Current Season
Newcastle
Current Season
❓ Burnley vs Newcastle Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 31W 18D 23L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 35W 19D 18L in their last 72 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Newcastle away?
Burnley's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.57 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Burnley or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Newcastle in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 30 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Newcastle have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won Burnley 1-4 Newcastle on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Newcastle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Burnley
0
Draws
6
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Newcastle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Newcastle?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 0, Newcastle have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Newcastle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 December 2025: Burnley 1-3 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 46%, Newcastle 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Burnley and 63% for Newcastle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Newcastle in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Newcastle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Newcastle matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Burnley's recent matches and 60% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Newcastle matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Burnley's matches and 63% of Newcastle's.
Do Burnley and Newcastle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Burnley's recent matches and 74% of Newcastle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Newcastle run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Burnley 1-4 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.25 xG and Newcastle 1.77 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle outscored their 1.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.66 / defence 1.23 against Newcastle attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 35/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 26% | Draw 25% | Newcastle 49%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 58%, Newcastle 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Newcastle's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.54 PPG, Newcastle 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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