Tottenham 2-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tottenham vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 37 as Tottenham welcome Burnley to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tottenham — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Tottenham's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Tottenham are significantly better at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Burnley have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Tottenham) versus 1.10 (Burnley). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Tottenham, 1 for Burnley and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 5–2 with Tottenham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Tottenham in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Burnley in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tottenham 68% and Burnley 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 70% | Burnley 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 2.09 xG and Burnley 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.151 / defence 1.053 | Burnley attack 0.888 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.790 / away 1.485. Data: 73 Tottenham games / 36 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 53% | Draw 22% | Burnley 25%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Burnley 4.00. Tottenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tottenham at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 100% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 53% | Draw 22% | Burnley 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Tottenham 2.09 / Burnley 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.151 / def 1.053 | Burnley attack 0.888 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.790 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Burnley xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Burnley kick off?
Tottenham vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Burnley?
Tottenham 2 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Tottenham vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Burnley part of?
Tottenham vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 53% chance of winning, Burnley a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Tottenham and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Burnley?
Record (3 meetings): Tottenham 2W | Draws 0 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Tottenham and Burnley in?
Tottenham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Burnley (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Tottenham's attack at 1.15x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.44
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Tottenham xG
Total xG
3.48
1.39
Burnley xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
12%
8.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
3%
32.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.39 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Tottenham have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 36W 12D 25L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 31W 18D 24L from 73 games, 1.52 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tottenham on 1.64 PPG, Burnley on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Tottenham have posted 2.03 PPG from 36 outings (24W 1D 11L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 14W 11D 11L from 36 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tottenham are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.52 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Burnley in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 36W 12D 25L in their last 73 games (1.64 PPG), while Burnley have gone 31W 18D 24L in their last 73 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Burnley away?
Tottenham's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 2.03 PPG; Burnley away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tottenham and Burnley runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when Tottenham won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Tottenham
1
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 4, Burnley have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Burnley 2-2 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Burnley?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Tottenham at 72%, Burnley at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Tottenham and 56% for Burnley. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Tottenham's games and 61% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tottenham vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Tottenham's matches and 56% of Burnley's.
Prediction vindicated as Tottenham edge out Burnley 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Burnley 2-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 2.09 xG and Burnley 1.39 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.15 / defence 1.05 against Burnley attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 73/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 53% | Draw 22% | Burnley 25%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 70%, Burnley 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.64 PPG, Burnley 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.