Stockport County 1-3 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Crewe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stockport County host Crewe at Edgeley Park in League Two, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 7W 2D 1L from 10 League Two appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crewe stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Crewe's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stockport County at 1.90 PPG versus Crewe's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Stockport County, 0 for Crewe and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Crewe trading profile (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 51% versus Crewe 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 44% | Crewe 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.68 xG and Crewe 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.278 / defence 0.739 | Crewe attack 1.021 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.320. Stockport County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Stockport County's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 76 Stockport County games / 77 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 53% | Draw 25% | Crewe 22%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Crewe 4.55. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 40% | Crewe 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 53% | Draw 25% | Crewe 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Stockport County 1.68 / Crewe 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.278 / def 0.739 | Crewe attack 1.021 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Crewe xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Crewe kick off?
Stockport County vs Crewe kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Crewe?
Stockport County 1 - 3 Crewe.
Where is Stockport County vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Crewe part of?
Stockport County vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 53% chance of winning, Crewe a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stockport County and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Crewe?
Record (3 meetings): Stockport County 2W | Draws 1 | Crewe 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Crewe in?
Stockport County (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Crewe (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 1.28x the league average against Crewe's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crewe's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.99
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.67
1.00
Crewe xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
4%
24.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.00 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stockport County come into this having played 77 games, going 41W 21D 15L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Crewe sit at 1.45 PPG from 77 outings (29W 25D 23L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Crewe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stockport County's home form reads 21W 13D 4L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Crewe have taken 1.05 points per game from 38 outings (8W 16D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.35 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Crewe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Crewe in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 41W 21D 15L in their last 77 games (1.87 PPG), while Crewe have gone 29W 25D 23L in their last 77 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Crewe away?
Stockport County's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.00 PPG; Crewe away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Crewe in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Crewe runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stockport County's record when hosting Crewe specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stockport County
1
Draws
1
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Crewe?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Crewe have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when Stockport County 1-3 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Crewe?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 42%, Crewe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Stockport County) and 45% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Crewe in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stockport County's recent matches and 50% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Stockport County's recent games and 45% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Crewe tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Crewe in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crewe cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stockport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Stockport County 1-3 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.68 xG and Crewe 1.00 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Crewe outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.28 / defence 0.74 against Crewe attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 76/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 53% | Draw 25% | Crewe 22%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Crewe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 44%, Crewe 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Crewe's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.45. Form was overturned, with Crewe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crewe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.