Crawley Town 1-1 Walsall – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 39%, yet in-form Walsall provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crawley Town vs Walsall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Walsall make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Form

Crawley Town (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Walsall's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Walsall have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Walsall are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Walsall's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Crawley Town's games and 80% of Walsall's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Walsall and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2023, ended Crawley Town 1–1 Walsall — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Walsall 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Walsall 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.76 xG and Walsall 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.018 / defence 1.123 | Walsall attack 1.179 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.320. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 75 games and Walsall's last 75.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 39% | Draw 23% | Walsall 38%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.57 | Draw 4.37 | Walsall 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.75) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Crawley Town as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Walsall (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Walsall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Walsall 80% (last 10 away games).

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