Rotherham vs Crawley Town – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rotherham at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rotherham vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Crawley Town travel to Aesseal New York Stadium to take on Rotherham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 November 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rotherham stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rotherham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rotherham at Aesseal New York Stadium this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crawley Town — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rotherham 1.00 PPG, Crawley Town 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rotherham register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Crawley Town in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rotherham, 2 for Crawley Town and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–4 with Crawley Town winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Rotherham trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Crawley Town trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 46% versus Crawley Town 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 51% | Crawley Town 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 1.67 xG and Crawley Town 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 1.017 / defence 1.510 | Crawley Town attack 1.035 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Rotherham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Rotherham games / 55 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rotherham 38% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 35%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Crawley Town 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rotherham as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rotherham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rotherham 80% | Crawley Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Aesseal New York Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 38% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Rotherham 1.67 / Crawley Town 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 1.017 / def 1.510 | Crawley Town attack 1.035 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Crawley Town xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rotherham vs Crawley Town kick off?
Rotherham vs Crawley Town is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 November 2026 at Aesseal New York Stadium.
Where is Rotherham vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Aesseal New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Crawley Town part of?
Rotherham vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 38% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Rotherham and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Rotherham vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Crawley Town?
Record (2 meetings): Rotherham 0W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 2W.
What form are Rotherham and Crawley Town in?
Rotherham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rotherham's attack at 1.02x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Rotherham's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
38%
2.60
27%
3.77
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Rotherham xG
Total xG
3.26
1.59
Crawley Town xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
8%
12.77
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Rotherham and 1.59 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rotherham's recent record stands at 11W 15D 29L from 55 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rotherham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 9W 18D 28L across 55 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rotherham on 0.87 PPG, Crawley Town on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rotherham have managed 6W 12D 9L from 27 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 4W 7D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rotherham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rotherham are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 0.96 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rotherham and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 11W 15D 29L in their last 55 games (0.87 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 18D 28L in their last 55 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Crawley Town away?
Rotherham's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 1.11 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rotherham and Crawley Town runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Rotherham
0
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Crawley Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Rotherham have won 0, Crawley Town have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Rotherham 0-4 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Rotherham and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 59%, Crawley Town 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rotherham) and 48% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Rotherham have failed to score in 26% of games; Crawley Town in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rotherham play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Rotherham's recent matches and 44% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rotherham vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rotherham's recent games and 48% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rotherham and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Rotherham have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.