Port Vale 1-1 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Crewe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port Vale and Crewe meet at Vale Park in League Two, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Monday 25 November 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Port Vale have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vale Park, Port Vale have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Vale Park this season.
Crewe's overall League Two record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crewe have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Port Vale, 2.10 for Crewe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Port Vale — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Crewe — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 40% versus Crewe 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 45% | Crewe 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.17 xG and Crewe 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 1.146 / defence 1.037 | Crewe attack 0.900 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.234. Data: 16 Port Vale games / 61 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 36% | Draw 28% | Crewe 35%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Crewe 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port Vale at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Port Vale 70% | Crewe 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Monday 25 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 36% | Draw 28% | Crewe 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Port Vale 1.17 / Crewe 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 1.146 / def 1.037 | Crewe attack 0.900 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Crewe xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Crewe kick off?
Port Vale vs Crewe kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 25 November 2024 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Crewe?
Port Vale 1 - 1 Crewe.
Where is Port Vale vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Crewe part of?
Port Vale vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 36% chance of winning, Crewe a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Port Vale and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Crewe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port Vale and Crewe in?
Port Vale (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Crewe (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Port Vale's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Crewe's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (0.90x) against Port Vale's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 16/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.53
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.32
1.15
Crewe xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.15 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port Vale come into this having played 62 games, going 20W 14D 28L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crewe sit at 1.61 PPG from 62 outings (28W 16D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crewe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Port Vale — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Port Vale's home form reads 10W 6D 14L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Crewe have taken 1.53 points per game from 30 outings (12W 10D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port Vale are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 1.39 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 62 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Crewe in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 20W 14D 28L in their last 62 games (1.19 PPG), while Crewe have gone 28W 16D 18L in their last 62 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Crewe away?
Crewe's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.20 PPG; Crewe away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Crewe in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Crewe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Port Vale
2
Draws
0
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Crewe?
From 3 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Crewe have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Port Vale 0-0 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Crewe?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 50%, Crewe 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Port Vale) and 40% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Port Vale have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Port Vale's recent matches and 57% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Port Vale's recent games and 40% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Crewe tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Crewe in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port Vale and Crewe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vale Park, Regular Season - 17, as Port Vale and Crewe drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.17 xG and Crewe 1.15 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.15 / defence 1.04 against Crewe attack 0.90 / defence 0.84, drawn from 16/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 36% | Draw 28% | Crewe 35%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 45%, Crewe 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Crewe's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Crewe arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.