Notts County 4-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to Meadow Lane to face Notts County in League Two, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Notts County (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Meadow Lane, Notts County have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crawley Town have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Notts County, 1.40 for Crawley Town — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Notts County lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Crawley Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Notts County — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 52% versus Crawley Town 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 46% | Crawley Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.61 xG and Crawley Town 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.194 / defence 1.025 | Crawley Town attack 0.792 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.140. Data: 54 Notts County games / 8 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 53% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 22%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Crawley Town 4.55. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Notts County 60% | Crawley Town 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 53% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Notts County 1.61 / Crawley Town 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.194 / def 1.025 | Crawley Town attack 0.792 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Notts County (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Crawley Town xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Crawley Town kick off?
Notts County vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Crawley Town?
Notts County 4 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Notts County vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Crawley Town part of?
Notts County vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 53% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Notts County and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Crawley Town?
Record (2 meetings): Notts County 1W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Notts County and Crawley Town in?
Notts County (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Notts County's attack rating (1.19) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.79x) against Notts County's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 54/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.02
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.54
0.93
Crawley Town xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
4%
23.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Notts County and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Notts County and 0.93 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Notts County have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 23W 12D 19L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 14W 12D 28L from 54 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Notts County are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crawley Town.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Notts County have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (12W 5D 10L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 6W 5D 16L from 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Notts County are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.19 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 54 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 23W 12D 19L in their last 54 games (1.50 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 14W 12D 28L in their last 54 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Crawley Town away?
Notts County's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.52 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Notts County have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Notts County won 4-0 on 20 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Notts County have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Notts County
0
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Notts County have won 3, Crawley Town have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Crawley Town 1-2 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Crawley Town?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Notts County see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 48%, Crawley Town 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Notts County) and 63% (Crawley Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Crawley Town in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Notts County's recent matches and 44% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Notts County's matches and 63% of Crawley Town's.
Do Notts County and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Notts County run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Crawley Town 4-0 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 9, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.61 xG and Crawley Town 0.93 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.19 / defence 1.02 against Crawley Town attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 54/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 53% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 22%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 46%, Crawley Town 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.