Notts County 1-2 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Meadow Lane plays host to Notts County versus Cheltenham in League Two, Regular Season - 44. Kick-off: Monday 21 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Notts County's overall League Two record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Notts County's home record at Meadow Lane: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cheltenham have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Notts County, 0.80 for Cheltenham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Notts County 1W, Cheltenham 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 8.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 5–3 with Notts County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Notts County half-time and goal-timing data (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 58% versus Cheltenham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 58% | Cheltenham 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.64 xG and Cheltenham 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 0.993 / defence 0.963 | Cheltenham attack 1.012 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.123. Cheltenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Notts County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 89 Notts County games / 43 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 49% | Draw 26% | Cheltenham 24%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Cheltenham 4.17. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Notts County if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Notts County 60% | Cheltenham 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Cheltenham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 49% | Draw 26% | Cheltenham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Notts County 1.64 / Cheltenham 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 0.993 / def 0.963 | Cheltenham attack 1.012 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Notts County (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Cheltenham xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Cheltenham kick off?
Notts County vs Cheltenham kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 21 April 2025 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Cheltenham?
Notts County 1 - 2 Cheltenham.
Where is Notts County vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Cheltenham part of?
Notts County vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 49% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Notts County and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Cheltenham?
Record (1 meetings): Notts County 1W | Draws 0 | Cheltenham 0W.
What form are Notts County and Cheltenham in?
Notts County (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Cheltenham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Notts County's attack at 0.99x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cheltenham's attack (1.01x) against Notts County's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 89/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.79
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.74
1.09
Cheltenham xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
5%
21.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Notts County and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Notts County and 1.09 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Notts County's recent record stands at 37W 19D 33L from 89 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Cheltenham, meanwhile, have gone 26W 20D 43L across 89 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Notts County against 1.10 for Cheltenham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Notts County have managed 22W 7D 15L from 44 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cheltenham's away record stands at 10W 10D 24L across 44 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Notts County are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.08 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 89 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Current Season
Cheltenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 37W 19D 33L in their last 89 games (1.46 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 26W 20D 43L in their last 89 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Cheltenham away?
Notts County's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.66 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Notts County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Notts County won 5-2 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Notts County have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cheltenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Notts County
0
Draws
1
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Cheltenham?
From 4 meetings on record, Notts County have won 3, Cheltenham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Notts County 5-2 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Cheltenham?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 57%, Cheltenham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Notts County) and 52% (Cheltenham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cheltenham in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Cheltenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Notts County's recent matches and 52% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Notts County's matches and 52% of Cheltenham's.
Do Notts County and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cheltenham defy the odds to beat Notts County 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Notts County 1-2 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.64 xG and Cheltenham 1.09 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cheltenham outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Cheltenham attack 1.01 / defence 1.27, drawn from 89/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 49% | Draw 26% | Cheltenham 24%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Cheltenham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 58%, Cheltenham 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Cheltenham's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.46 PPG, Cheltenham 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.98 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.