Harrogate Town 0-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Harrogate Town at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Exercise Stadium plays host to Harrogate Town versus Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 6 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Harrogate Town's overall League Two record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Harrogate Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Harrogate Town's home record at Exercise Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crawley Town have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Harrogate Town, 1.20 for Crawley Town — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Harrogate Town have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Crawley Town in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Crawley Town hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Crawley Town winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Crawley Town have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Harrogate Town — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 44% versus Crawley Town 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 40% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 1.79 xG and Crawley Town 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 1.170 / defence 1.143 | Crawley Town attack 0.782 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.139. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Harrogate Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Harrogate Town games / 6 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 55% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 21%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Crawley Town 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Harrogate Town (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Harrogate Town are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Harrogate Town 80% | Crawley Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Exercise Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Harrogate Town 55% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Harrogate Town 1.79 / Crawley Town 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Harrogate Town attack 1.170 / def 1.143 | Crawley Town attack 0.782 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Harrogate Town (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Harrogate Town xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Crawley Town xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town kick off?
Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 September 2025 at Exercise Stadium.
What was the final score in Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Harrogate Town 0 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Exercise Stadium.
What competition is Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town part of?
Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Harrogate Town a 55% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Harrogate Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Harrogate Town and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Crawley Town?
Record (6 meetings): Harrogate Town 0W | Draws 2 | Crawley Town 4W.
What form are Harrogate Town and Crawley Town in?
Harrogate Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Harrogate Town's attack at 1.17x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.78x) against Harrogate Town's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 52/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Harrogate Town Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.31
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Harrogate Town xG
Total xG
2.80
1.02
Crawley Town xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
4%
27.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Harrogate Town and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Harrogate Town and 1.02 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Harrogate Town's recent record stands at 16W 13D 23L from 52 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Harrogate Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 12W 12D 28L across 52 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Harrogate Town against 0.92 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Harrogate Town have managed 11W 5D 10L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 5W 5D 16L across 26 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Harrogate Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Harrogate Town are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.17 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 52 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Harrogate Town
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Harrogate Town and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Harrogate Town have gone 16W 13D 23L in their last 52 games (1.17 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 12W 12D 28L in their last 52 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Harrogate Town at home or Crawley Town away?
Harrogate Town's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Harrogate Town at home: 1.46 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Crawley Town go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Harrogate Town have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Harrogate Town
2
Draws
6
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Harrogate Town have won 0, Crawley Town have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Harrogate Town and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Crawley Town 2-0 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Harrogate Town and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Harrogate Town 50%, Crawley Town 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Harrogate Town) and 65% (Crawley Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town have failed to score in 27% of games; Crawley Town in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Harrogate Town home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Harrogate Town play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Harrogate Town's recent matches and 46% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Harrogate Town's matches and 65% of Crawley Town's.
Do Harrogate Town and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Harrogate Town have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Harrogate Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Harrogate Town 0-1 at Exercise Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.79 xG and Crawley Town 1.02 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Harrogate Town fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 1.17 / defence 1.14 against Crawley Town attack 0.78 / defence 1.29, drawn from 52/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 55% | Draw 23% | Crawley Town 21%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 40%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Harrogate Town's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.17 PPG, Crawley Town 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.