Grimsby 1-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grimsby at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grimsby vs Gillingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gillingham make the trip to Blundell Park to face Grimsby in League Two, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Grimsby's overall League Two record this term: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games (1.83 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Grimsby have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gillingham have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Gillingham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Grimsby's 1.83 PPG return is 1.23 points per game ahead of Gillingham's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Grimsby — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Gillingham — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 83% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Grimsby 33% | Gillingham 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Grimsby 17% | Gillingham 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grimsby 1.18 xG and Gillingham 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grimsby attack 0.723 / defence 0.976 | Gillingham attack 0.577 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.034. Grimsby's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gillingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Grimsby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Grimsby games / 7 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grimsby 51% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 18%. Fair-value odds: Grimsby 1.96 | Draw 3.23 | Gillingham 5.56. Grimsby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Gillingham's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grimsby are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grimsby if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Grimsby 33% | Gillingham 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grimsby vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Blundell Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grimsby 51% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 31% | xG Grimsby 1.18 / Gillingham 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Grimsby attack 0.723 / def 0.976 | Gillingham attack 0.577 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Grimsby (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Grimsby xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Gillingham xG
31%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grimsby vs Gillingham kick off?
Grimsby vs Gillingham kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at Blundell Park.
What was the final score in Grimsby vs Gillingham?
Grimsby 1 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Grimsby vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Blundell Park.
What competition is Grimsby vs Gillingham part of?
Grimsby vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Grimsby vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Grimsby a 51% chance of winning, Gillingham a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Grimsby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Grimsby and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Grimsby vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Gillingham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Grimsby and Gillingham in?
Grimsby (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Gillingham (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Grimsby's attack rating (0.72) and Gillingham's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.58x) against Grimsby's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 6/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (18.7%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grimsby Win
51%
1.97
31%
3.21
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Grimsby xG
Total xG
1.76
0.58
Gillingham xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.27
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
6%
17.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.3 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grimsby vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Grimsby and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Grimsby and 0.58 for Gillingham, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Grimsby vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Grimsby have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 3W 2D 1L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Grimsby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gillingham's form line: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Gillingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Grimsby are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gillingham.
Attack vs Defence
Grimsby are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.17 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Gillingham in 0%.
Defensively: Grimsby have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Gillingham in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grimsby
Early Season
Gillingham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grimsby and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Grimsby have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Have Grimsby or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grimsby have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Gillingham in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Grimsby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grimsby won 1-4 on 18 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grimsby have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Grimsby
3
Draws
1
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Gillingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Grimsby have won 4, Gillingham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grimsby and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Gillingham 1-4 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Grimsby and Gillingham?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grimsby tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Grimsby) and 0% (Gillingham) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Grimsby and 17% for Gillingham.
On the defensive side: Grimsby keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Gillingham in 50%; Grimsby have failed to score in 33% of games; Gillingham in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grimsby home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grimsby play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Grimsby's recent matches and 0% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grimsby vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Grimsby's recent games and 17% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grimsby and Gillingham tend to score early?
Grimsby have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grimsby and Gillingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grimsby and Gillingham finished level at 1-1 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 9, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.18 xG and Gillingham 0.58 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 0.72 / defence 0.98 against Gillingham attack 0.58 / defence 1.27, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grimsby 51% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 18%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 17%, Gillingham 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grimsby's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Gillingham's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Grimsby arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gillingham scored 1 against a 0.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.