Gillingham 1-1 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gillingham face Swindon Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Priestfield Stadium plays host to Gillingham versus Swindon Town in League Two (matchday 45). Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Gillingham's record over their last 10 games: 3W 7D 0L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gillingham's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Swindon Town have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Swindon Town's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Gillingham, 0 for Swindon Town and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Gillingham 1–1 Swindon Town — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gillingham — key trading statistics (last 90 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Swindon Town — key trading statistics (last 90 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 43% versus Swindon Town 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 33% | Swindon Town 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gillingham surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Swindon Town have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 0.85 xG and Swindon Town 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.743 / defence 0.775 | Swindon Town attack 1.315 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.142. Gillingham's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Swindon Town have an above-average attack rating of 1.315, which lifts their away xG to 1.16. Gillingham have a tight defence (rating 0.775), which is pulling Swindon Town's projected output down. Data: built from Gillingham's last 90 games and Swindon Town's last 90.
Result probabilities: Gillingham 26% | Draw 32% | Swindon Town 42%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.87 | Draw 3.14 | Swindon Town 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swindon Town are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swindon Town if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Gillingham's last 10 home games and Swindon Town's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gillingham 30% (last 10 home games) | Swindon Town 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 45 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 26% | Draw 32% | Swindon Town 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Gillingham 0.85 / Swindon Town 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.743 / def 0.775 | Swindon Town attack 1.315 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Swindon Town xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gillingham vs Swindon Town FAQs
What time does Gillingham vs Swindon Town kick off?
Gillingham vs Swindon Town kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Swindon Town?
Gillingham 1 - 1 Swindon Town.
Where is Gillingham vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Swindon Town part of?
Gillingham vs Swindon Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 26% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Gillingham and Swindon Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Gillingham vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gillingham's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Swindon Town's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Swindon Town's attack (1.31x) against Gillingham's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Gillingham's last 90 games and Swindon Town's last 90 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
26%
3.87
32%
3.14
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.01
1.16
Swindon Town xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
8%
12.38
18%
5.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.6 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gillingham vs Swindon Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.16 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gillingham's recent record stands at 31W 25D 34L from 90 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Swindon Town, meanwhile, have gone 29W 27D 34L across 90 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Gillingham against 1.27 for Swindon Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gillingham have managed 19W 13D 13L from their last 45 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swindon Town's away record stands at 9W 15D 21L across their last 45 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gillingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gillingham are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.63 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town in 66%.
Last 90 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Current Season
Swindon Town
Current Season
Gillingham (Home) vs Swindon Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gillingham
Current Season
Swindon Town
Current Season
❓ Gillingham vs Swindon Town Form FAQs
What form are Gillingham and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 31W 25D 34L in their last 90 games (1.31 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 29W 27D 34L in their last 90 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Swindon Town away?
Gillingham's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.56 PPG; Swindon Town away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Swindon Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Swindon Town in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Gillingham and Swindon Town, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 17 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Swindon Town have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gillingham have gone 0W 3D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Swindon Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Gillingham
5
Draws
2
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Gillingham vs Swindon Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Swindon Town?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Gillingham have won 1, Swindon Town have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Swindon Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 March 2026: Gillingham 0-2 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Swindon Town?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 40%, Swindon Town 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Gillingham) and 62% (Swindon Town).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gillingham have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gillingham vs Swindon Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gillingham and Swindon Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gillingham's recent matches and 67% of Swindon Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gillingham and Swindon Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Gillingham's recent games and 62% of Swindon Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Swindon Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Gillingham's recent matches and 78% of Swindon Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gillingham and Swindon Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham and Swindon Town finished level at 1-1 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 0.85 xG and Swindon Town 1.16 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.74 / defence 0.78 against Swindon Town attack 1.31 / defence 0.89, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 26% | Draw 32% | Swindon Town 42%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 33%, Swindon Town 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Swindon Town's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.31 PPG, Swindon Town 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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