Salford City 4-1 Colchester – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Colchester at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Colchester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Colchester at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 45. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at The Peninsula Stadium this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Peninsula Stadium this season.
Colchester — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in League Two this season, Colchester have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Salford City at 1.60 PPG versus Colchester's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Salford City have won 2, Colchester 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Salford City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Salford City in-play tendencies (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Colchester in-play tendencies (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 61% versus Colchester 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 56% | Colchester 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.17 xG and Colchester 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.967 / defence 1.264 | Colchester attack 0.898 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.142. Data: 90 Salford City games / 90 Colchester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 33% | Draw 29% | Colchester 39%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Colchester 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colchester are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colchester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 70% | Colchester 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 33% | Draw 29% | Colchester 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Salford City 1.17 / Colchester 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.967 / def 1.264 | Colchester attack 0.898 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Colchester (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Colchester xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Colchester kick off?
Salford City vs Colchester kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Colchester?
Salford City 4 - 1 Colchester.
Where is Salford City vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Colchester part of?
Salford City vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 33% chance of winning, Colchester a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Salford City and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Colchester?
Record (7 meetings): Salford City 2W | Draws 2 | Colchester 3W.
What form are Salford City and Colchester in?
Salford City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Colchester (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Salford City's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Colchester's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 90/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
33%
3.06
29%
3.48
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.47
1.30
Colchester xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Salford City and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Salford City and 1.30 for Colchester, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salford City's recent record stands at 30W 26D 34L from 90 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Colchester, meanwhile, have gone 27W 30D 33L across 90 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.29 PPG, Colchester on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 14W 13D 18L from 45 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Colchester's away record stands at 11W 16D 18L across 45 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 1.22 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 90 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Colchester
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Colchester in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 30W 26D 34L in their last 90 games (1.29 PPG), while Colchester have gone 27W 30D 33L in their last 90 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Colchester away?
Salford City's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.22 PPG; Colchester away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salford City and Colchester runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Salford City go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Colchester won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salford City's record when hosting Colchester specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Salford City
2
Draws
3
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Colchester?
From 10 meetings on record, Salford City have won 5, Colchester have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Colchester 0-1 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Colchester?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 64%, Colchester 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Salford City) and 40% (Colchester).
On the defensive side: Colchester in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Colchester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Salford City's games and 53% of Colchester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salford City vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Salford City's recent games and 40% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Colchester tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Colchester in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Salford City run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Colchester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Colchester 4-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.17 xG and Colchester 1.30 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against Colchester attack 0.90 / defence 0.94, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 33% | Draw 29% | Colchester 39%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 56%, Colchester 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Colchester's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.29 PPG, Colchester 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Colchester (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.49 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.