Gillingham 1-4 Bromley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bromley (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gillingham face Bromley.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gillingham host Bromley at Priestfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gillingham stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gillingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gillingham's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Priestfield Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bromley — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bromley's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bromley are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Gillingham, 2 for Bromley and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Gillingham in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Bromley in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 50% versus Bromley 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gillingham 33% | Bromley 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.14 xG and Bromley 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 1.058 / defence 1.070 | Bromley attack 1.095 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.215. Data: 72 Gillingham games / 74 Bromley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 30% | Draw 26% | Bromley 44%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Bromley 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bromley are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bromley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Gillingham 80% | Bromley 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Bromley | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 30% | Draw 26% | Bromley 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Gillingham 1.14 / Bromley 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 1.058 / def 1.070 | Bromley attack 1.095 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Bromley (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Bromley xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Bromley kick off?
Gillingham vs Bromley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Bromley?
Gillingham 1 - 4 Bromley.
Where is Gillingham vs Bromley being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Bromley part of?
Gillingham vs Bromley is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Bromley?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 30% chance of winning, Bromley a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bromley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Bromley?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gillingham and Bromley will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Bromley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Bromley?
Record (3 meetings): Gillingham 0W | Draws 1 | Bromley 2W.
What form are Gillingham and Bromley in?
Gillingham (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Bromley (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 1.06x the league average against Bromley's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bromley's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bromley Win
30%
3.31
26%
3.80
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.56
1.42
Bromley xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
7%
13.74
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Bromley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Bromley expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.42 for Bromley, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Bromley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Gillingham have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 23W 27D 22L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gillingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bromley's form line: 31W 23D 18L from 72 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gillingham on 1.33 PPG, Bromley on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gillingham have posted 1.56 PPG from 36 outings (15W 11D 10L).
On the road, Bromley have gone 14W 11D 11L from 36 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gillingham are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Bromley are on 1.50 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 72 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Blended
Bromley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Bromley in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 23W 27D 22L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Bromley have gone 31W 23D 18L in their last 72 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Bromley away?
Gillingham's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.56 PPG; Bromley away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Bromley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bromley in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gillingham and Bromley runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jan 2025, when Bromley won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gillingham's record when hosting Bromley specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Gillingham
1
Draws
3
Bromley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Bromley?
From 4 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 0, Bromley have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Bromley last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Gillingham 1-4 Bromley.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Bromley?
Bromley have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Bromley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 47%, Bromley 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Gillingham) and 47% (Bromley).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bromley in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Bromley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Bromley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gillingham's recent matches and 50% of Bromley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Bromley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Gillingham's recent games and 47% of Bromley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Bromley tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Bromley in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bromley run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Gillingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bromley beat Gillingham 1-4 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.14 xG and Bromley 1.42 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bromley outscored their 1.42 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 1.06 / defence 1.07 against Bromley attack 1.09 / defence 0.85, drawn from 72/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 30% | Draw 26% | Bromley 44%, with Bromley to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 33%, Bromley 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bromley's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.33 PPG, Bromley 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bromley win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bromley (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.