Gillingham 1-0 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gillingham and AFC Wimbledon meet at Priestfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Gillingham have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Gillingham have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gillingham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, AFC Wimbledon are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Gillingham, 1 for AFC Wimbledon and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended Gillingham 2–1 AFC Wimbledon — a Gillingham win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Gillingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 34% versus AFC Wimbledon 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gillingham 30% | AFC Wimbledon 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.13 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.862 / defence 0.977 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.993 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.261. Data: built from Gillingham's last 65 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 64.
Result probabilities: Gillingham 34% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 38%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 2.97 | Draw 3.58 | AFC Wimbledon 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Wimbledon at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gillingham 60% (last 10 home games) | AFC Wimbledon 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, matchday 20 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 34% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Gillingham 1.13 / AFC Wimbledon 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.862 / def 0.977 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.993 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.22
AFC Wimbledon xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon FAQs
What time does Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon?
Gillingham 1 - 0 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon is a League Two fixture (matchday 20) (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 34% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gillingham and AFC Wimbledon will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gillingham's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.99x) against Gillingham's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Gillingham's last 65 games and AFC Wimbledon's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
34%
2.97
28%
3.58
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.35
1.22
AFC Wimbledon xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Gillingham and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.22 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gillingham come into this having played 64 games, going 23W 14D 27L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.19 PPG from 64 outings (18W 22D 24L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Gillingham against 1.19 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gillingham's home form reads 16W 6D 10L across their last 32 home games, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 32 away games (8W 12D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gillingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gillingham are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.20 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Gillingham (Home) vs AFC Wimbledon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gillingham
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon Form FAQs
What form are Gillingham and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 18W 22D 24L in their last 64 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Gillingham's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.69 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Gillingham or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Gillingham and AFC Wimbledon, the earliest from August 2021. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gillingham have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Gillingham
2
Draws
3
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and AFC Wimbledon?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Gillingham have won 3, AFC Wimbledon have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2025: Gillingham 1-0 AFC Wimbledon.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 38%, AFC Wimbledon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Gillingham) and 50% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 41%; Gillingham have failed to score in 31% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gillingham vs AFC Wimbledon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gillingham and AFC Wimbledon matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Gillingham's recent matches and 50% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gillingham and AFC Wimbledon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Gillingham's recent games and 50% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and AFC Wimbledon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Gillingham's recent matches and 56% of AFC Wimbledon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gillingham defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.13 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.22 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.86 / defence 0.98 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.99 / defence 0.83, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 34% | Draw 28% | AFC Wimbledon 38%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Gillingham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 30%, AFC Wimbledon 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gillingham 1.30 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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