Accrington ST 3-4 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Accrington ST at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Accrington ST vs Swindon Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Swindon Town travel to Wham Stadium to take on Accrington ST in League Two (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Accrington ST stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Accrington ST at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Swindon Town — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Swindon Town have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Accrington ST are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Swindon Town in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 45% versus Swindon Town 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 49% | Swindon Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.77 xG and Swindon Town 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.931 / defence 0.979 | Swindon Town attack 1.006 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.261. Swindon Town's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Accrington ST's projected output up. Data: built from Accrington ST's last 19 games and Swindon Town's last 65.
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 50% | Draw 23% | Swindon Town 27%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.01 | Draw 4.28 | Swindon Town 3.72. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Accrington ST as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Accrington ST's last 10 home games and Swindon Town's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Accrington ST 50% (last 10 home games) | Swindon Town 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 20 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 50% | Draw 23% | Swindon Town 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Accrington ST 1.77 / Swindon Town 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.931 / def 0.979 | Swindon Town attack 1.006 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Swindon Town xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Accrington ST vs Swindon Town FAQs
What time does Accrington ST vs Swindon Town kick off?
Accrington ST vs Swindon Town kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Accrington ST 3 - 4 Swindon Town.
Where is Accrington ST vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Swindon Town part of?
Accrington ST vs Swindon Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 20) (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 50% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Accrington ST and Swindon Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Accrington ST vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 0.93x the league average against Swindon Town's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Accrington ST's last 19 games and Swindon Town's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.28
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
3.01
1.24
Swindon Town xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
5%
21.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Accrington ST vs Swindon Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.24 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Accrington ST come into this having played 65 games, going 20W 13D 32L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Swindon Town sit at 1.35 PPG from 65 outings (23W 19D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.12 PPG, Swindon Town on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Accrington ST's home form reads 12W 6D 15L across their last 33 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Swindon Town have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 33 away games (8W 12D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Accrington ST are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.54 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Swindon Town
Blended
Accrington ST (Home) vs Swindon Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Accrington ST
Blended
Swindon Town
Blended
❓ Accrington ST vs Swindon Town Form FAQs
What form are Accrington ST and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 20W 13D 32L in their last 65 games (1.12 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 23W 19D 23L in their last 65 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Swindon Town away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.27 PPG; Swindon Town away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 26 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Oct 2025, when Accrington ST won Accrington ST 4-0 Swindon Town.
Accrington ST's record when hosting Swindon Town specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
4
Draws
1
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Accrington ST vs Swindon Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Swindon Town?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Accrington ST have won 2, Swindon Town have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Swindon Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 September 2026: Swindon Town 1-1 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Swindon Town?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 48%, Swindon Town 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Accrington ST) and 54% (Swindon Town).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST have failed to score in 30% of games; Swindon Town in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Accrington ST vs Swindon Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Accrington ST and Swindon Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Accrington ST's games and 67% of Swindon Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Accrington ST and Swindon Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Accrington ST's recent games and 54% of Swindon Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Swindon Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 76% of Swindon Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swindon Town defy the odds to beat Accrington ST 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Accrington ST 3-4 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.77 xG and Swindon Town 1.24 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Swindon Town outscored their 1.24 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Swindon Town attack 1.01 / defence 1.21, drawn from 19/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 50% | Draw 23% | Swindon Town 27%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Swindon Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 49%, Swindon Town 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Swindon Town's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.12 PPG, Swindon Town 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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