Crewe 2-1 Oldham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oldham at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Oldham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Alexandra Stadium plays host to Crewe versus Oldham in League Two, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off: Saturday 28 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Crewe (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Crewe's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Alexandra Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Oldham's overall League Two record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Oldham away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Oldham are 0.90 PPG clear of Crewe in recent League Two fixtures (2.60 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Crewe 0W, Oldham 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Crewe half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Oldham half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 58% versus Oldham 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 53% | Oldham 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.15 xG and Oldham 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.048 / defence 1.086 | Oldham attack 1.081 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.192. Data: 85 Crewe games / 38 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 31% | Draw 26% | Oldham 43%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Oldham 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oldham at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oldham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Crewe 60% | Oldham 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Alexandra Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 31% | Draw 26% | Oldham 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Crewe 1.15 / Oldham 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.048 / def 1.086 | Oldham attack 1.081 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Oldham (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Oldham xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Oldham kick off?
Crewe vs Oldham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 March 2026 at Alexandra Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Oldham?
Crewe 2 - 1 Oldham.
Where is Crewe vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at Alexandra Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Oldham part of?
Crewe vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 31% chance of winning, Oldham a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Crewe and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Oldham?
Record (1 meetings): Crewe 0W | Draws 1 | Oldham 0W.
What form are Crewe and Oldham in?
Crewe (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Oldham (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Crewe's attack at 1.05x the league average against Oldham's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oldham's attack (1.08x) against Crewe's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 85/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
31%
3.25
26%
3.78
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.54
1.40
Oldham xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Crewe and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Crewe and 1.40 for Oldham, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crewe's recent record stands at 16W 9D 13L from 38 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Oldham, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 9L across 38 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Crewe against 1.61 for Oldham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Crewe have managed 9W 4D 5L from 18 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oldham's away record stands at 7W 6D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Crewe are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 1.24 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Current Season
Oldham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Oldham in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 16W 9D 13L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while Oldham have gone 16W 13D 9L in their last 38 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Oldham away?
Crewe's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.72 PPG; Oldham away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Crewe or Oldham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Oldham in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Crewe
1
Draws
0
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Oldham?
From 2 meetings on record, Crewe have won 1, Oldham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Crewe 2-1 Oldham.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Oldham?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 61%, Oldham 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Crewe) and 50% (Oldham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oldham in 50%; Oldham in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Crewe's recent matches and 33% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Crewe's matches and 50% of Oldham's.
Do Crewe and Oldham tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Oldham in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crewe defy the odds to beat Oldham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Oldham 2-1 at Alexandra Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.15 xG and Oldham 1.40 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Crewe beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.05 / defence 1.09 against Oldham attack 1.08 / defence 0.91, drawn from 85/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 31% | Draw 26% | Oldham 43%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Crewe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 53%, Oldham 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Oldham's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.50 PPG, Oldham 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crewe win broke the near-deadlock. Oldham (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.