Chesterfield 0-0 Bromley – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chesterfield at 40%, yet in-form Bromley provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chesterfield vs Bromley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chesterfield host Bromley at SMH Group Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chesterfield stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chesterfield, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chesterfield at SMH Group Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Bromley have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bromley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bromley's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bromley are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Chesterfield have won 1, Bromley 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chesterfield in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Bromley in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chesterfield 56% versus Bromley 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chesterfield 54% | Bromley 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chesterfield 1.51 xG and Bromley 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chesterfield attack 1.283 / defence 0.988 | Bromley attack 1.185 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.212. Chesterfield carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 71 Chesterfield games / 71 Bromley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chesterfield 40% | Draw 25% | Bromley 36%. Fair-value odds: Chesterfield 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Bromley 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chesterfield are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bromley (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chesterfield offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Chesterfield 70% | Bromley 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chesterfield vs Bromley | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: SMH Group Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chesterfield 40% | Draw 25% | Bromley 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Chesterfield 1.51 / Bromley 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Chesterfield attack 1.283 / def 0.988 | Bromley attack 1.185 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Chesterfield (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Chesterfield xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Bromley xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chesterfield vs Bromley kick off?
Chesterfield vs Bromley kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at SMH Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Chesterfield vs Bromley?
Chesterfield 0 - 0 Bromley.
Where is Chesterfield vs Bromley being played?
The match is being played at SMH Group Stadium.
What competition is Chesterfield vs Bromley part of?
Chesterfield vs Bromley is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Chesterfield vs Bromley?
Our statistical model gives Chesterfield a 40% chance of winning, Bromley a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chesterfield the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chesterfield vs Bromley?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Chesterfield and Bromley will score (BTTS).
Will Chesterfield vs Bromley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Bromley?
Record (3 meetings): Chesterfield 1W | Draws 2 | Bromley 0W.
What form are Chesterfield and Bromley in?
Chesterfield (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Bromley (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chesterfield's attack at 1.28x the league average against Bromley's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bromley's attack versus Chesterfield's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chesterfield Win
40%
2.51
25%
4.05
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Chesterfield xG
Total xG
2.93
1.42
Bromley xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
10%
10.39
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chesterfield vs Bromley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Chesterfield and Bromley expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Chesterfield and 1.42 for Bromley, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Chesterfield vs Bromley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chesterfield come into this having played 71 games, going 28W 22D 21L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Chesterfield is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bromley sit at 1.65 PPG from 71 outings (32W 21D 18L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bromley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chesterfield on 1.49 PPG, Bromley on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chesterfield's home form reads 16W 13D 6L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Bromley have taken 1.49 points per game from 35 outings (14W 10D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Chesterfield are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Bromley are on 1.52 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Bromley in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chesterfield
Blended
Bromley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chesterfield and Bromley in coming into this match?
Chesterfield have gone 28W 22D 21L in their last 71 games (1.49 PPG), while Bromley have gone 32W 21D 18L in their last 71 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chesterfield at home or Bromley away?
Chesterfield's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chesterfield at home: 1.74 PPG; Bromley away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Chesterfield or Bromley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chesterfield have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bromley in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jan 2025, when Chesterfield won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chesterfield's record when hosting Bromley specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chesterfield
3
Draws
0
Bromley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chesterfield and Bromley?
From 4 meetings on record, Chesterfield have won 1, Bromley have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chesterfield and Bromley last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Chesterfield 0-0 Bromley.
Who has won more matches between Chesterfield and Bromley?
Chesterfield have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chesterfield are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bromley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chesterfield 66%, Bromley 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Chesterfield) and 49% (Bromley).
On the defensive side: Bromley in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chesterfield home games / Bromley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chesterfield play Bromley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Chesterfield's games and 51% of Bromley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chesterfield vs Bromley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Chesterfield's recent games and 49% of Bromley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chesterfield and Bromley tend to score early?
Chesterfield have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bromley in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chesterfield's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chesterfield and Bromley finished level at 0-0 at SMH Group Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chesterfield 1.51 xG and Bromley 1.42 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chesterfield fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bromley landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chesterfield attack 1.28 / defence 0.99 against Bromley attack 1.19 / defence 0.92, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chesterfield 40% | Draw 25% | Bromley 36%, with Chesterfield to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chesterfield 54%, Bromley 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chesterfield's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Bromley's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chesterfield 1.49 PPG, Bromley 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chesterfield (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Bromley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.