Carlisle 0-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bradford at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Carlisle and Bradford meet at Brunton Park in League Two, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 January 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Carlisle's overall League Two record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carlisle's home record at Brunton Park: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Bradford (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bradford arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Carlisle 3W, Bradford 3W, 1D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Bradford winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Carlisle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bradford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 51% versus Bradford 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 44% | Bradford 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 0.93 xG and Bradford 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.639 / defence 1.132 | Bradford attack 0.937 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.182. Carlisle's attack strength of 0.639 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Carlisle games / 70 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 26% | Draw 31% | Bradford 43%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Bradford 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bradford if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Carlisle 50% | Bradford 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 26% | Draw 31% | Bradford 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Carlisle 0.93 / Bradford 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.639 / def 1.132 | Bradford attack 0.937 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Bradford (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bradford xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Bradford kick off?
Carlisle vs Bradford kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Bradford?
Carlisle 0 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Carlisle vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Bradford part of?
Carlisle vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 26% chance of winning, Bradford a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Carlisle and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Bradford?
Record (7 meetings): Carlisle 3W | Draws 1 | Bradford 3W.
What form are Carlisle and Bradford in?
Carlisle (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Bradford (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Carlisle's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Bradford's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (0.94x) against Carlisle's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 24/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
26%
3.83
31%
3.18
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.18
1.25
Bradford xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
13.42
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.2 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.25 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carlisle's recent record stands at 11W 15D 44L from 70 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford, meanwhile, have gone 29W 20D 21L across 70 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bradford by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Carlisle heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Carlisle have managed 5W 9D 21L from 35 games — 0.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bradford's away record stands at 12W 9D 14L across 35 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carlisle are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.34 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bradford in 60%.
Last 70 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Bradford in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 11W 15D 44L in their last 70 games (0.69 PPG), while Bradford have gone 29W 20D 21L in their last 70 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Bradford away?
Bradford's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 0.69 PPG; Bradford away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Bradford have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carlisle have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bradford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Carlisle
1
Draws
4
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Bradford?
From 8 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 3, Bradford have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Carlisle 0-1 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 57%, Bradford 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Carlisle) and 54% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Carlisle have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Carlisle's games and 60% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Carlisle vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Carlisle's recent games and 54% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Bradford tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bradford in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Carlisle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Carlisle 0-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.93 xG and Bradford 1.25 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Carlisle fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.64 / defence 1.13 against Bradford attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 24/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 26% | Draw 31% | Bradford 43%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 44%, Bradford 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bradford's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.69. That form edge translated into the three points. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.