AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 41 as AFC Wimbledon welcome Harrogate Town to The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Harrogate Town stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Harrogate Town have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Harrogate Town's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of AFC Wimbledon's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. AFC Wimbledon's 30% rate and Harrogate Town's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of AFC Wimbledon: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Harrogate Town, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 3–0 with AFC Wimbledon winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AFC Wimbledon and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Harrogate Town in-play and half-time data (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 41% versus Harrogate Town 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 37% | Harrogate Town 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.37 xG and Harrogate Town 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.075 / defence 0.823 | Harrogate Town attack 0.635 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.075. Data: 86 AFC Wimbledon games / 86 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 57% | Draw 28% | Harrogate Town 15%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Harrogate Town 6.67. The model has a clear lean to AFC Wimbledon (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Harrogate Town's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
AFC Wimbledon dominate the H2H record, yet Harrogate Town are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Wimbledon at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Harrogate Town (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 30% | Harrogate Town 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 57% | Draw 28% | Harrogate Town 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 32% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.37 / Harrogate Town 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.075 / def 0.823 | Harrogate Town attack 0.635 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Harrogate Town xG
32%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 0 Harrogate Town.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 57% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town?
Record (5 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 3W | Draws 2 | Harrogate Town 0W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Harrogate Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Harrogate Town's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 86/86 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.0%), 2-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
57%
1.77
28%
3.54
15%
6.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
1.93
0.56
Harrogate Town xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
6.59
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.11
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
57%
1.75
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
32%
3.10
4%
25.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.9 | 11.2 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.56 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AFC Wimbledon come into this having played 86 games, going 35W 25D 26L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Harrogate Town sit at 1.26 PPG from 86 outings (29W 21D 36L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.51 PPG, Harrogate Town on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AFC Wimbledon's home form reads 23W 10D 10L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Harrogate Town have taken 1.12 points per game from 43 outings (11W 15D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.08 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 86 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 35W 25D 26L in their last 86 games (1.51 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 29W 21D 36L in their last 86 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Harrogate Town away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.84 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.12 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Harrogate Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Harrogate Town in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AFC Wimbledon have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when AFC Wimbledon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AFC Wimbledon
2
Draws
0
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 4, Harrogate Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Harrogate Town see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 42%, Harrogate Town 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (AFC Wimbledon) and 42% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Harrogate Town in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 46% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 42% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 51% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Harrogate Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Harrogate Town 1-0 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.37 xG and Harrogate Town 0.56 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.07 / defence 0.82 against Harrogate Town attack 0.64 / defence 0.99, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 57% | Draw 28% | Harrogate Town 15%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 37%, Harrogate Town 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.51 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.