Wrexham 2-3 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wrexham host Stevenage at STōK Cae Ras in League One, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Wrexham have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wrexham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wrexham at STōK Cae Ras this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at STōK Cae Ras. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Wrexham are significantly better at STōK Cae Ras than their overall form suggests.
Stevenage — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Wrexham) versus 1.60 (Stevenage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wrexham, 1 for Stevenage and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Wrexham trading profile (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Stevenage trading profile (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 46% versus Stevenage 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 51% | Stevenage 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 0.91 xG and Stevenage 0.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.108 / defence 0.747 | Stevenage attack 0.590 / defence 0.641. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.169. Stevenage's defence strength of 0.641 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Wrexham's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 27 Wrexham games / 71 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 43% | Draw 37% | Stevenage 20%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.33 | Draw 2.70 | Stevenage 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 24% | Total xG 1.42. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.42 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 76% — Stevenage's lower xG of 0.52 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 24%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wrexham as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.42 combined xG gives a 17% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 24% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wrexham 40% | Stevenage 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 43% | Draw 37% | Stevenage 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 24% | xG Wrexham 0.91 / Stevenage 0.52 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.108 / def 0.747 | Stevenage attack 0.590 / def 0.641 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
0.52
Stevenage xG
24%
BTTS
42%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Stevenage kick off?
Wrexham vs Stevenage kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 January 2025 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Stevenage?
Wrexham 2 - 3 Stevenage.
Where is Wrexham vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Stevenage part of?
Wrexham vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 43% chance of winning, Stevenage a 20% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 24% probability that both Wrexham and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Wrexham 0W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Wrexham and Stevenage in?
Wrexham (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wrexham's attack at 1.11x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Wrexham's defence, projects 0.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 25.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (20.4%), 1-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 59% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
43%
2.32
37%
2.70
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
21.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Wrexham xG
Total xG
1.42
0.52
Stevenage xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
42%
Over 1.5
2.38
58%
Under 1.5
1.72
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
24%
BTTS Yes
4.14
76%
BTTS No
1.32
Clean Sheet
60%
1.67
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.1 | 12.4 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.9 | 11.3 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.6%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Wrexham and 0.52 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wrexham's recent record stands at 41W 16D 14L from 71 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Wrexham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 28W 21D 22L across 71 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wrexham by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stevenage heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wrexham have managed 27W 5D 2L from 34 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.96 PPG overall — Wrexham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stevenage's away record stands at 11W 11D 12L across 34 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wrexham are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.08 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Stevenage in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 41W 16D 14L in their last 71 games (1.96 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 28W 21D 22L in their last 71 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Stevenage away?
Wrexham's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.53 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Stevenage in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wrexham
0
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Stevenage?
From 2 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 0, Stevenage have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2025, when Wrexham 2-3 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 41%, Stevenage 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Wrexham) and 44% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Stevenage in 44%; Stevenage in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Wrexham's recent matches and 38% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wrexham vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Wrexham's recent games and 44% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wrexham and Stevenage tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Wrexham 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Wrexham 2-3 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 0.91 xG and Stevenage 0.52 xG, a combined 1.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Wrexham beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stevenage outscored their 0.52 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.11 / defence 0.75 against Stevenage attack 0.59 / defence 0.64, drawn from 27/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 43% | Draw 37% | Stevenage 20%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Stevenage win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 42% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 24% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 51%, Stevenage 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Stevenage's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Stevenage winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wrexham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.