Stockport County 1-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Cardiff travel to Edgeley Park to take on Stockport County. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Stockport County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
Cardiff — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cardiff have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cardiff's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stockport County 1.60 PPG, Cardiff 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Stockport County trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Cardiff trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 62% versus Cardiff 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 46% | Cardiff 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.19 xG and Cardiff 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.104 / defence 1.007 | Cardiff attack 0.786 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.025. Cardiff's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Stockport County games / 6 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 45% | Draw 30% | Cardiff 25%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Cardiff 4.00. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Stockport County 70% | Cardiff 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Cardiff | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 45% | Draw 30% | Cardiff 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Stockport County 1.19 / Cardiff 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.104 / def 1.007 | Cardiff attack 0.786 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Cardiff xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Cardiff kick off?
Stockport County vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Cardiff?
Stockport County 1 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Stockport County vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Cardiff part of?
Stockport County vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 45% chance of winning, Cardiff a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Stockport County and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Cardiff?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockport County and Cardiff in?
Stockport County (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Cardiff (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 1.10x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.33
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.00
0.81
Cardiff xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.81 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stockport County come into this having played 52 games, going 25W 16D 11L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.15 PPG from 52 outings (14W 18D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cardiff, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Cardiff — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stockport County's home form reads 16W 5D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (4W 12D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.13 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stockport County have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Early Season
Cardiff
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 25W 16D 11L in their last 52 games (1.75 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 14W 18D 20L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Cardiff away?
Stockport County's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.12 PPG; Cardiff away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Cardiff runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Stockport County
2
Draws
0
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Cardiff?
From 2 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 0, Cardiff have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Cardiff 1-1 Stockport County.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 60%, Cardiff 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Stockport County) and 48% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cardiff in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Stockport County's games and 64% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Stockport County's recent games and 48% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Cardiff tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County and Cardiff share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County and Cardiff finished level at 1-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 8, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.19 xG and Cardiff 0.81 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against Cardiff attack 0.79 / defence 0.76, drawn from 53/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 45% | Draw 30% | Cardiff 25%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 46%, Cardiff 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.