Stevenage 1-1 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stevenage at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Rotherham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 45 as Stevenage welcome Rotherham to Lamex Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Stevenage's home record at Lamex Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rotherham — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rotherham's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Stevenage) versus 1.10 (Rotherham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Stevenage have won 0, Rotherham 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Rotherham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rotherham trading profile (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 41% versus Rotherham 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 42% | Rotherham 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.22 xG and Rotherham 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.932 / defence 1.109 | Rotherham attack 0.801 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.173. Data: 90 Stevenage games / 44 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 40% | Draw 29% | Rotherham 31%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Rotherham 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Stevenage 70% | Rotherham 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 40% | Draw 29% | Rotherham 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Stevenage 1.22 / Rotherham 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.932 / def 1.109 | Rotherham attack 0.801 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Rotherham xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Rotherham kick off?
Stevenage vs Rotherham kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Rotherham?
Stevenage 1 - 1 Rotherham.
Where is Stevenage vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Rotherham part of?
Stevenage vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 40% chance of winning, Rotherham a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Stevenage and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Rotherham?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Rotherham 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Rotherham in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Rotherham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Rotherham's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 90/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.43
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.26
1.04
Rotherham xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.04 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage's recent record stands at 34W 24D 32L from 90 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Rotherham, meanwhile, have gone 20W 22D 48L across 90 games — 0.91 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rotherham heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 19W 12D 14L from 45 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rotherham's away record stands at 5W 9D 31L across 45 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 0.98 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 34W 24D 32L in their last 90 games (1.40 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 20W 22D 48L in their last 90 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Rotherham away?
Stevenage's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.53 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Rotherham in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Rotherham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stevenage's record when hosting Rotherham specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stevenage
2
Draws
1
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Rotherham?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Rotherham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Rotherham 0-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Rotherham 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stevenage) and 44% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Stevenage have failed to score in 27% of games; Rotherham in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stevenage's recent matches and 38% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stevenage's recent games and 44% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Rotherham tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage and Rotherham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Stevenage and Rotherham drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.22 xG and Rotherham 1.04 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Rotherham attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 40% | Draw 29% | Rotherham 31%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Rotherham 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Rotherham's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rotherham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.98 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.