Stevenage 0-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Tuesday 18 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Lamex Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burton Albion (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Burton Albion's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Stevenage, 1.40 for Burton Albion — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Stevenage, 1 for Burton Albion and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 41% versus Burton Albion 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 43% | Burton Albion 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.38 xG and Burton Albion 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.037 / defence 0.982 | Burton Albion attack 0.777 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.195. Data: 76 Stevenage games / 77 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 47% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 24%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Burton Albion 4.17. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 60% | Burton Albion 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 47% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Stevenage 1.38 / Burton Albion 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.037 / def 0.982 | Burton Albion attack 0.777 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Burton Albion xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Burton Albion kick off?
Stevenage vs Burton Albion kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 18 February 2025 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Burton Albion?
Stevenage 0 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Stevenage vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Burton Albion part of?
Stevenage vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 47% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Stevenage and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Burton Albion?
Record (3 meetings): Stevenage 1W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Burton Albion in?
Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 1.04x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.78x) against Stevenage's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 76/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.47
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.29
0.91
Burton Albion xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
6%
16.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.91 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 30W 22D 24L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Burton Albion's form line: 17W 21D 38L from 76 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Stevenage are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.65 PPG from 37 outings (17W 10D 10L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 7W 13D 17L from 37 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.93 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 30W 22D 24L in their last 76 games (1.47 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 17W 21D 38L in their last 76 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Burton Albion away?
Stevenage's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.65 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Stevenage
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Burton Albion?
From 7 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Burton Albion 1-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 43%, Burton Albion 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Stevenage) and 49% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Burton Albion in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stevenage's recent matches and 49% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Stevenage's recent games and 49% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Stevenage 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Stevenage 0-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.38 xG and Burton Albion 0.91 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Burton Albion attack 0.78 / defence 1.01, drawn from 76/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 47% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 24%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Burton Albion win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 43%, Burton Albion 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.