Crawley Town 1-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 26 as Crawley Town welcome Wigan to Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 18 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wigan — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wigan's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 0.90 PPG versus Wigan's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Crawley Town, 1 for Wigan and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Wigan winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Wigan in-play and half-time data (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 55% versus Wigan 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Wigan 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.03 xG and Wigan 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.983 / defence 1.168 | Wigan attack 0.889 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.195. Wigan's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 30 Crawley Town games / 75 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 30% | Draw 30% | Wigan 40%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Wigan 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 60% | Wigan 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 30% | Draw 30% | Wigan 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Crawley Town 1.03 / Wigan 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.983 / def 1.168 | Wigan attack 0.889 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Wigan (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Wigan xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Wigan kick off?
Crawley Town vs Wigan kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 18 February 2025 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Wigan?
Crawley Town 1 - 1 Wigan.
Where is Crawley Town vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Wigan part of?
Crawley Town vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 30% chance of winning, Wigan a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Crawley Town and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Wigan?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Wigan 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Wigan in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Wigan (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.98) and Wigan's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
30%
3.36
30%
3.35
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.27
1.24
Wigan xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
9%
11.62
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.24 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town come into this having played 75 games, going 29W 13D 33L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.39 PPG from 75 outings (29W 17D 29L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.33 PPG, Wigan on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Crawley Town's home form reads 15W 7D 14L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 1.17 points per game from 36 outings (11W 9D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.20 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 75 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Wigan in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 29W 13D 33L in their last 75 games (1.33 PPG), while Wigan have gone 29W 17D 29L in their last 75 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Wigan away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.44 PPG; Wigan away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Wigan in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
1
Draws
1
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Wigan?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Wigan have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2025, when Crawley Town 1-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Wigan 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Crawley Town) and 47% (Wigan).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Crawley Town's games and 56% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Crawley Town's recent games and 47% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Wigan tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Wigan in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Wigan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Crawley Town and Wigan drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.03 xG and Wigan 1.24 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against Wigan attack 0.89 / defence 0.80, drawn from 30/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 30% | Draw 30% | Wigan 40%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Wigan 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Wigan's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.33 PPG, Wigan 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.