Port Vale 0-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port Vale face Cambridge United.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port Vale host Cambridge United at Vale Park in League One (matchday 46). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Port Vale have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Port Vale's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Cambridge United — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Cambridge United away from home: 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Port Vale at 0.80 PPG versus Cambridge United's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Port Vale have won 1, Cambridge United 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Port Vale 1–1 Cambridge United — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Port Vale in-play tendencies (last 91 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (last 91 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 44% versus Cambridge United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 50% | Cambridge United 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.56 xG and Cambridge United 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.965 / defence 1.345 | Cambridge United attack 0.728 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.193. Cambridge United's defence rating of 1.240 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Port Vale's projected output up. Cambridge United's attack rating of 0.728 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Port Vale's defence rating of 1.345 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cambridge United's projected output up. Data: built from Port Vale's last 91 games and Cambridge United's last 91.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 46% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 29%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.16 | Draw 3.98 | Cambridge United 3.50. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port Vale at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port Vale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Port Vale's last 10 home games and Cambridge United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Port Vale 50% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, matchday 46 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 46% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Port Vale 1.56 / Cambridge United 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.965 / def 1.345 | Cambridge United attack 0.728 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Cambridge United xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port Vale vs Cambridge United FAQs
What time does Port Vale vs Cambridge United kick off?
Port Vale vs Cambridge United kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Cambridge United?
Port Vale 0 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Port Vale vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Cambridge United part of?
Port Vale vs Cambridge United is a League One fixture (matchday 46) (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 46% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Port Vale and Cambridge United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Port Vale vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port Vale's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Cambridge United's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Port Vale's last 91 games and Cambridge United's last 91 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
46%
2.16
25%
3.98
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.73
1.17
Cambridge United xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
6%
16.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port Vale vs Cambridge United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.17 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port Vale come into this having played 91 games, going 23W 20D 48L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Cambridge United sit at 1.02 PPG from 91 outings (25W 18D 48L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 0.98 PPG, Cambridge United on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Port Vale's home form reads 14W 8D 23L across their last 45 home games, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambridge United have taken 0.69 points per game from their last 45 away games (8W 7D 30L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port Vale are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.88 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 91 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
Port Vale (Home) vs Cambridge United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port Vale
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Port Vale vs Cambridge United Form FAQs
What form are Port Vale and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 23W 20D 48L in their last 91 games (0.98 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 25W 18D 48L in their last 91 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Cambridge United away?
Port Vale's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.11 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Port Vale's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Port Vale
2
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Port Vale vs Cambridge United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Cambridge United?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Port Vale have won 1, Cambridge United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Cambridge United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2024: Port Vale 0-0 Cambridge United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 44%, Cambridge United 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Port Vale) and 49% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Port Vale have failed to score in 31% of games; Cambridge United in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port Vale vs Cambridge United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port Vale and Cambridge United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Port Vale's recent matches and 40% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port Vale and Cambridge United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Port Vale's recent games and 49% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Cambridge United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Port Vale's recent matches and 69% of Cambridge United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Port Vale's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale and Cambridge United finished level at 0-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.56 xG and Cambridge United 1.17 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Cambridge United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.96 / defence 1.34 against Cambridge United attack 0.73 / defence 1.24, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 46% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 29%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 50%, Cambridge United 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambridge United's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 0.98 PPG, Cambridge United 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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