Salford City 0-2 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Port Vale at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Salford City haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Salford City's home record at The Peninsula Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port Vale — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Port Vale haven't played a League Two game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Port Vale's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Salford City) versus 0.80 (Port Vale). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Salford City, 1 for Port Vale and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Port Vale winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Salford City in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 67% versus Port Vale 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 65% | Port Vale 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.89 xG and Port Vale 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.028 / defence 1.138 | Port Vale attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.371. Data: 46 Salford City games / 0 Port Vale games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Salford City 50% | Draw 23% | Port Vale 27%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Port Vale 3.70. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salford City as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Salford City 90% | Port Vale 10%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 50% | Draw 23% | Port Vale 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Salford City 1.89 / Port Vale 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.028 / def 1.138 | Port Vale attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Salford City (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Port Vale xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Port Vale kick off?
Salford City vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Port Vale?
Salford City 0 - 2 Port Vale.
Where is Salford City vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Port Vale part of?
Salford City vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 50% chance of winning, Port Vale a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Salford City and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Port Vale?
Record (2 meetings): Salford City 1W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 1W.
What form are Salford City and Port Vale in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Salford City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Salford City's attack at 1.03x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
50%
1.99
23%
4.36
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Salford City xG
Total xG
3.21
1.33
Port Vale xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
4%
24.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Salford City and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Salford City and 1.33 for Port Vale, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 12D 21L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. Salford City haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Port Vale sit at 0.89 PPG from 46 outings (10W 11D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. Port Vale haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.11 PPG, Port Vale on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Salford City's home form reads 5W 8D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Port Vale have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (4W 7D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 0.89 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Pre-Season
Port Vale
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 13W 12D 21L in their last 46 games (1.11 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 10W 11D 25L in their last 46 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Port Vale away?
Salford City's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.00 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Salford City's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Salford City
0
Draws
3
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Port Vale?
From 5 meetings on record, Salford City have won 2, Port Vale have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Salford City 1-0 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 83%, Port Vale 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Salford City and 44% for Port Vale. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port Vale in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Port Vale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Salford City's games and 35% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salford City vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Salford City's matches and 44% of Port Vale's.
Do Salford City and Port Vale tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port Vale cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Salford City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Salford City 0-2 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.89 xG and Port Vale 1.33 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.03 / defence 1.14 against Port Vale attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 46/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 50% | Draw 23% | Port Vale 27%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Port Vale win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 65%, Port Vale 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Port Vale's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.11 PPG, Port Vale 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.