Peterborough 2-1 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Peterborough (76%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Peterborough face Shrewsbury.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shrewsbury make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Peterborough's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Shrewsbury have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Shrewsbury have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Peterborough's favour (2.40 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Peterborough, who have won 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against Shrewsbury — Shrewsbury have 0 wins, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Peterborough 2–1 Shrewsbury — a Peterborough win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Peterborough and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 47% versus Shrewsbury 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Shrewsbury 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 2.27 xG and Shrewsbury 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.444 / defence 0.898 | Shrewsbury attack 0.525 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.163. Peterborough carry an above-average attack rating of 1.444 — their 2.27 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Shrewsbury's attack rating of 0.525 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.55. Data: built from Peterborough's last 72 games and Shrewsbury's last 73.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 76% | Draw 17% | Shrewsbury 7%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.31 | Draw 5.92 | Shrewsbury 14.51. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (76%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 76% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 40% (last 10 home games) | Shrewsbury 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, matchday 29 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 76% | Draw 17% | Shrewsbury 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Peterborough 2.27 / Shrewsbury 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.444 / def 0.898 | Shrewsbury attack 0.525 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Shrewsbury xG
38%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Shrewsbury FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Peterborough vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Peterborough 2 - 1 Shrewsbury.
Where is Peterborough vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Shrewsbury part of?
Peterborough vs Shrewsbury is a League One fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 76% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 7% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Peterborough and Shrewsbury will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Peterborough vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.44x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shrewsbury's attack (0.53x) against Peterborough's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 72 games and Shrewsbury's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 3-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
76%
1.31
17%
5.92
7%
14.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
3 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.82
0.55
Shrewsbury xG
1.31
76%
Home win
5.92
17%
Draw
14.51
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
10%
9.73
Win to Nil
44%
2.27
1%
141.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.4 | 8.4 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Shrewsbury Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.55 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Shrewsbury?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough's recent record stands at 39W 12D 22L from 73 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Shrewsbury, meanwhile, have gone 26W 11D 36L across 73 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Peterborough by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 21W 8D 7L from their last 36 home games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shrewsbury's away record stands at 8W 7D 21L across their last 36 away games, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.95 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
Peterborough (Home) vs Shrewsbury (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
❓ Peterborough vs Shrewsbury Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 39W 12D 22L in their last 73 games (1.77 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 26W 11D 36L in their last 73 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Shrewsbury away?
Peterborough's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.97 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Peterborough have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won Shrewsbury 0-3 Peterborough on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Peterborough
0
Draws
0
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Shrewsbury H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Shrewsbury?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 6, Shrewsbury have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Shrewsbury last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2025: Peterborough 3-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Shrewsbury?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 36% (Peterborough) and 28% (Shrewsbury) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Peterborough) and 33% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Shrewsbury Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Shrewsbury matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Peterborough's recent matches and 28% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Peterborough and Shrewsbury matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Peterborough's recent games and 33% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Shrewsbury matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Peterborough's recent matches and 64% of Shrewsbury's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Shrewsbury 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Shrewsbury 2-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.27 xG and Shrewsbury 0.55 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.44 / defence 0.90 against Shrewsbury attack 0.53 / defence 1.14, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 76% | Draw 17% | Shrewsbury 7%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Shrewsbury 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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