Northampton 0-2 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Shrewsbury encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 30 as Northampton welcome Shrewsbury to Sixfields Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Northampton have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Sixfields Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shrewsbury — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Shrewsbury's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Northampton are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Northampton, 1 for Shrewsbury and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Shrewsbury winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 53% versus Shrewsbury 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 51% | Shrewsbury 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.53 xG and Shrewsbury 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 1.006 / defence 1.013 | Shrewsbury attack 0.584 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.123. Data: 27 Northampton games / 74 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 58% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 16%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Shrewsbury 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Northampton (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 60% | Shrewsbury 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 58% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 38% | xG Northampton 1.53 / Shrewsbury 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 1.006 / def 1.013 | Shrewsbury attack 0.584 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Northampton (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Shrewsbury xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Northampton vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Shrewsbury?
Northampton 0 - 2 Shrewsbury.
Where is Northampton vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Shrewsbury part of?
Northampton vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 58% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Northampton and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Shrewsbury?
Record (1 meetings): Northampton 0W | Draws 0 | Shrewsbury 1W.
What form are Northampton and Shrewsbury in?
Northampton (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Northampton's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Shrewsbury's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.89
16%
6.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.19
0.66
Shrewsbury xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
6.21
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
3%
28.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 11.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Northampton and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Northampton and 0.66 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Shrewsbury?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton come into this having played 73 games, going 35W 18D 20L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shrewsbury sit at 1.21 PPG from 73 outings (26W 10D 37L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Northampton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Northampton's home form reads 18W 9D 9L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Shrewsbury have taken 0.83 points per game from 36 outings (8W 6D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.96 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 73 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 35W 18D 20L in their last 73 games (1.68 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 26W 10D 37L in their last 73 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Shrewsbury away?
Northampton's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.75 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Northampton or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2025, when Northampton won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Shrewsbury?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Shrewsbury have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Northampton 4-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Shrewsbury?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 53%, Shrewsbury 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Northampton) and 36% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Northampton's recent matches and 31% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Northampton's recent games and 36% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shrewsbury cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Northampton 0-2 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.53 xG and Shrewsbury 0.66 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Shrewsbury outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Shrewsbury attack 0.58 / defence 1.14, drawn from 27/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 58% | Draw 26% | Shrewsbury 16%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Shrewsbury win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 51%, Shrewsbury 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Shrewsbury winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.